城镇化进程中村庄人口规模的变化规律  

A Discussion on the Change Rule of Population Size in Villages during the Urbanization Process

作　　者：熊万胜[1,2,3] 王诗玮 Xiong Wansheng;Wang Shiwei(School of Social and Public Administration,East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai 200237;China Urban-Rural Development Research Center,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237;Research Center for Social Development and Social Governance,Zhejiang Red Boat Cad-re College,Jiaxing,Zhejiang 314000)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237 [2]华东理工大学中国城乡发展研究中心,上海200237 [3]浙江红船干部学院社会发展与社会治理研究中心,浙江嘉兴314000

出　　处：《宁夏社会科学》2025年第1期119-131,共13页NingXia Social Sciences

摘　　要：研究重新审视并修正传统的推拉理论与生命周期说的预设,以期更全面地解释中国人口迁移现象。传统理论通常预设了城乡空间的二元区分,忽略了空间分布及城乡多层次体系和融合的影响。通过修改“结构约束下的推—拉”理论预设,强调社会保护体制的城乡二元结构对农民工生命周期的影响,指出这可能导致村庄人口得到补充。从多角度验证人口流出地区存在人口恢复的可能及影响,从区位差异角度发现呈现“鞍形分布”和“梯度分布”,并且讨论它们在不同地带的差异。研究从两个方面来改变城乡二元区分的假定:既要看到城镇村多层次体系的存在,也要看到城乡融合对于城乡区分的某种程度的淡化。尽管存在挑战,中国乡村的未来并非完全悲观,许多村庄仍具有吸引人口的能力,其人口变化值得关注。This paper re-examines and revises the traditional push-pull theory and life-cycle hypothesis to provide a more comprehensive explanation of population migration phenomena in China.Conventional theories often presuppose a binary dis-tinction between urban and rural spaces,neglecting the influence of spatial distribution and the multi-level systems and inte-gration of urban and rural areas.By revising the"push-pull"theory under structural constraints,this study highlights the im-pact of the dual structure of social protection systems on the life cycle of migrant workers,indicating that this may lead to the replenishment of village populations.The potential and implications of population recovery are explored from multiple perspec-tives:from the perspective of locational differences,an"saddle-shaped distribution"and"gradient distribution"are identi-fied,and their variations across different zones are discussed.To alter the assumption of a binary distinction between urban and rural areas,two aspects are considered:recognizing the existence of a multi-level system encompassing towns and villag-es,as well as acknowledging the extent to which urban-rural integration has blurred this distinction.Despite challenges,the fu-ture of rural China is not entirely pessimistic;many villages still possess the capacity to attract population,and changes in their demographics merit attention.This paper aims to offer a more integrated perspective on the development of urban-rural re-lations in China and to provide a theoretical basis for relevant policy-making.In summary,this work seeks to enhance our un-derstanding of the complex dynamics of population migration within the Chinese context by integrating insights from revised push-pull and life-cycle theories,while also considering the evolving nature of urban-rural interactions and the role of social protection structures in shaping demographic trends.

关 键 词：城镇化 村庄人口规模 鞍形分布 城乡融合 

分 类 号：C911[经济管理] C922[社会学]