计算模拟方法提高深时食物网稳定性演变的时间分辨率:以煤山剖面二叠纪-三叠纪生态记录为例  

Modeling Method Enhances Temporal Resolution of Deep-Time Food Web Stability Evolution:A Case Study on Permian-Triassic Ecological Record from the Meishan Section

作　　者：黄元耕 辛佰仑 郭镇 李子珩 乔慧捷[3] 黄鑫月 陈中强 Huang Yuangeng;Xin Bailun;Guo Zhen;Li Ziheng;Qiao Huijie;Huang Xinyue;Chen Zhong-Qiang(State Key Laboratory of Geomicrobiology and Environmental Changes,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China;Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地质微生物与环境全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430078 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430078 [3]中国科学院动物研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地球科学》2025年第3期951-963,共13页Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.41930322);面上项目(No.42377205);广东省自然科学基金项目(No.2024A1515012584);古生物学与油气地层应用全国重点实验室开放课题项目(No.223111).

摘　　要：约2.52亿年前发生的二叠纪-三叠纪(P-Tr)之交生物大灭绝是地质历史上规模最大的生态危机事件,被认为是当代生态危机参照案例.不过,整合多个门类、系统刻画生物群落食物网结构整体演变过程的研究仍然匮乏.特别是,化石记录的不完备性及其在地层记录的低时间分辨率成为人们“以古鉴今”的卡点.本研究基于浙江煤山P-Tr界线金钉子剖面丰富的化石物种出现记录,利用PyRate贝叶斯模拟方法对所有物种在剖面上真实首现与末现时间进行了重新估算.结果显示,物种多样性的下降分为3个阶段,第1和第3阶段迅速下降,第2阶段缓慢下降.在此基础上,探讨以不同时间分辨率划分古群落的方案,从50 ka每个群落,不断提高时间分辨率,到1 ka每群落,分析各种划分方案下相邻群落物种组成的相似度.随着时间分辨率的提高,煤山剖面相邻群落的物种组成越来越像,对于1~4 ka每群落的方案,5%以上相邻群落在物种组成上完全一样.因此选取5 ka每群落的时间分辨率,构建了连续的古群落序列,量化评估了群落组成和模拟食物网稳定性/抗灾能力在P-Tr之交的演变过程.结果表明,生态结构以及群落稳定性在第1和第2阶段的变化不大,在第3阶段骤然变化.古群落在第1和第2阶段尚具备较强的抗灾能力,可能因为这两个阶段消失的主要为冗余物种,群落的生态结构和功能维持了完整,随着第3阶段多种功能群的消失,生态结构才完全崩溃重组.本文探讨了煤山古群落划分的不同时间分辨率方案,重建了5 ka分辨率下的古生态结构演变过程,为开展高分辨率深时生态系统演化及古今对比研究提供了新思路.The Permian-Triassic(P-Tr)mass extinction,which occurred approximately 252 million years ago,represents the largest ecological crisis in Earth′s geological history and is often regarded as a reference case for modern ecological crises.However,studies that integrate multiple taxa and systematically characterize the overall evolutionary trajectory of food web structures in communities remain scarce.In particular,the incompleteness of fossil records and their low temporal resolution within stratigraphic records pose significant challenges to using deep-time crises as analogs for modern ecological crises.This study focuses on the fossil-rich Meishan Section in Zhejiang Province,the global stratotype section and point(GSSP)for the PTr boundary.Using Bayesian modeling with the PyRate method,we recalculated the true first and last appearances of all fossil species within this section.The results reveal a three-phase decline in species diversity:rapid drops in the first and third phases,with a gradual decline in the second phase.Building on these results,we explored schemes for delineating paleocommunities at varying temporal resolutions,ranging from 50 ka per community down to 1 ka per community.We then analyzed species composition similarity between adjacent communities under each scheme.As the temporal resolution increases,adjacent communities exhibit increasingly similar species compositions.Notably,for resolutions of 1-4 ka years per community,over 5%of adjacent communities show identical species compositions.Adopting a temporal resolution of 5 ka per community,we constructed a continuous sequence of paleocommunities and quantitatively assessed the evolutionary dynamics of community composition,simulated food web stability,and resistance across the P-Tr boundary.The results indicate minimal changes in ecological structure and community stability during the first and second phases,followed by abrupt shifts in the third phase.Communities in the first and second phases retained relatively high resistance,likely due t

关 键 词：大灭绝 生态结构 古群落 食物网 稳定性 生态系统 地层学 

分 类 号：P534[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]