融合多源信息的伊犁地区道路雪灾风险评估研究  

A Multi-source Information Fusion Model Construction and Risk Grading Study of Snowstorm Risk Assessment on Roads in Ili Region

作　　者：何文鑫 郝晓华 刘峰贵 刘艳[3] 邵东航 赵琴 赵子胜 李弘毅 HE Wenxin;HAO Xiaohua;LIU Fenggui;LIU Yan;SHAO Donghang;ZHAO Qin;ZHAO Zisheng;LI Hongyi(Qinghai Normal University,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810016,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 73000,China;Institute of Urumqi Desert Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810016 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《遥感技术与应用》2025年第1期177-191,共15页Remote Sensing Technology and Application

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0602);甘肃省重点基金项目(24JRRA082);冰冻圈科学与冻土工程重点实验室自主部署项目(CSFSE-ZZ-2402);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B03004-1)。

摘　　要：雪灾是伊犁地区最主要的自然灾害之一,积雪、风吹雪以及雪崩灾害严重威胁着该区域内的交通运行,并对道路规划等基础设施规划产生了严重影响。鉴于此,对该地区的道路雪灾风险等级进行科学估算和评估,是确保区域内交通安全运行以及道路选址等重大决策的重要依据。结合多源遥感数据和基础地理信息数据,利用熵权法和岭回归方法,发展了一套道路雪灾风险评估方法,构建了伊犁地区积雪、雪崩以及风吹雪灾害的潜在致险性评估模型,进而对伊犁地区道路雪灾的潜在风险性进行了综合评估和致因分析。研究结果表明:伊犁地区3种雪灾类型潜在致险性在空间分布上具有较高的相关性,潜在致险性由高到低依次为:积雪灾害>风吹雪灾害>雪崩灾害。雪灾综合致险性表现为天山地区较高,中部伊犁河谷地区次之,小部分河谷及背风山谷地区致险性较低的空间特征。其中,昭苏县、新源县、尼勒克县以及特克斯县大部分区域为雪灾致险性的热点区域。从道路雪灾综合风险的视角来看,昭苏县、新源县以及尼勒克县部分路段风险性最高,霍尔果斯市、霍城县、伊宁县路段风险次之,而巩留—新源交界路段道路雪灾综合风险相对较低。道路雪灾综合风险较高的路段分别为:G577昭苏—胡松图喀尔逊段,G577昭苏—特克斯段,S330库尔德宁—那拉提段,G218那拉提—巩乃斯段,G578尼勒克—唐布拉段。本研究对道路雪灾风险评估以及道路等基础设施选址具有一定的参考价值。Due to the unique natural geographic environment of Ili region,snow disaster is one of the major natu⁃ral disasters,snow disaster,wind-blown snow disaster and avalanche disaster seriously threaten the operation of regional traffic,and have an important impact on the road planning and other infrastructure construction,the scientific assessment of the risk level of snow disaster on the road is an important basis for ensuring the safe oper⁃ation of regional traffic and major decision-making such as the location of the road.Based on multi-source re⁃mote sensing information fusion data and basic geographic data,this paper develops a set of road snowstorm risk assessment algorithms using entropy weighting and ridge regression methods,so as to construct a potential risk assessment of snow disaster,avalanche disaster and wind-blown snow disaster in the Ili region,as well as a comprehensive risk assessment system of snow disaster,and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the potential risk of snow disaster along the roads in the region.The results show that:(1)the potential riskiness of the three snow disaster types in Ili region has high correlation in spatial distribution,and the potential riskiness of the snow disaster types is in the order of potential riskiness of snowstorms,potential riskiness of wind-blown snow⁃storms,potential riskiness of avalanches.(2)the comprehensive riskiness of snowstorms basically shows the higher riskiness in the north and south Tienshan region,followed by the central Ili valley region,and the riski⁃ness of small portion of the river valleys and leeward valleys is lower,of which,the riskiness of roads along the routes of snowstorms is also comprehensively analysed.The spatial characteristics of low risk,of which Zhaosu County,Xinyuan County,Nilek County and most of Tekes County are the key areas of snow disaster(.3)from the point of view of the integrated risk of road snow disaster,Zhaosu County,Xinyuan County and part of the road section in Nilek County have the highest risk,foll

关 键 词：多源信息融合 道路雪灾 风险评估 伊犁 

分 类 号：U126[交通运输工程] P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]