多方法评估运城站测项预报效能  

Multi-Method Assessment of the Forecasting Efficacy of Yuncheng Station Measurements

作　　者：姚林鹏 刘瑞春[2,3] 刘国俊[1,3] 黄春玲[1,3] 常姣[1,3] Yao Linpeng;Liu Ruichun;Liu Guojun;Huang Chunling;Chang Jiao(Yuncheng Earthquake Monitoring Central Station,Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Yuncheng,China;Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Taiyuan,China;Taiyuan Continental Rift Dynamics National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station,Taiyuan,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局运城地震监测中心站,山西运城 [2]山西省地震局,山西太原 [3]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,山西太原

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2025年第10期79-82,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

基　　金：中国地震局监测、预报、科研三结合课题(3JH-202401008),山西省地震局科研项目(SBK-2309);2023年度震情跟踪定向工作任务(2023010212)。

摘　　要：分别采用阈值法、速率变化法和破年变法3种方法,对运城地震监测中心站观测资料进行预报效能评估工作给出其预报效能评估结果。结果表明,(1)断层气氡、溶解水氡、痕量汞、痕量氢、溶解气、溶解离子、体应变、东郭水位、东郭水温、水准NSD和水准FBY共11个测项分项预报效能较好;(2)评估结果较好的测项分项在评估方法、预测震级、预测时间、对应震例数量上,表现出相似的特征,而在预测范围上,表现出低震级(M_(L)4.0以上)小范围,高震级(M_(L)5.0以上)大范围的特征。This study employs three methodologies-threshold method,rate change method,and year-break method-to assess the forecasting efficacy of observatory data from the Yuncheng Earthquake Monitoring Center.The results indicate that(1)measurements including fault gas radon,dissolved water radon,trace mercury,trace hydrogen,dissolved gases,dissolved ions,body strain,Dongguo water level,Dongguo water temperature,leveling NSD,and leveling FBY show satisfactory forecasting efficacy;(2)measurements that demonstrate favorable assessment outcomes exhibit similar characteristics across evaluation methods,predicted magnitudes,forecasted times,and the number of corresponding seismic events.However,these measurements show distinct characteristics in prediction scope,with low magnitude(M_(L)>4.0)predictions spanning small areas and high magnitude(M_(L)>5.0)predictions covering larger regions.

关 键 词：运城站 效能评估 预测指标 技术方法 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]