泰州市2016—2020年每日平均温度对居民循环及呼吸系统疾病死亡的滞后效应分析  

Lagging effect of daily average temperature on resident mortality in Taizhou city,Jiangsu province from 2016 to 2020

作　　者：张德坤[1] 田元睿 赵小兰[1] 卢海燕[1] 张艳秋 俞浩[2] ZHANG De-kun;TIAN Yuan-rui;ZHAO Xiao-lan;LU Hai-yan;ZHANG Yan-qiu;YU Hao(Department of Non-communicable Chronic Diseases,Taizhou Center of Disease Control and Prevention,Taizhou,Jiangsu225300,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]泰州市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制科,江苏泰州225300 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2025年第2期140-144,F0003,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家科技创新2030重大项目资助(2023ZD0510000)。

摘　　要：目的研究泰州市日均温度对居民每日循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。方法基于泰州市2016年1月1日至2020年12月31日居民死亡资料和气象资料,采用非线性分布滞后模型,并调整长期趋势、星期几效应等混杂因素,研究每日平均温度与循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡之间的相关性。结果日均气温对循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡效应曲线均呈“J”形。冷效应具有死亡延迟效应,气温对循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病死亡的冷效应分别在第5天和第6天时达到最大值,RR值分别为1.04(1.02~1.06)和1.04(1.01~1.06)。热效应具有死亡急性效应,气温对循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病死亡的热效应均在当天表现出最大,RR值分别为1.28(1.23~1.34)和1.29(1.20~1.38)。低温对循环系统死亡的累积效应在0~14 d滞后最强,而高温对循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的累积效应均在0~7 d滞后最强。结论泰州市每日平均温度与循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡有关,在一定程度上存在滞后效应。提示应增加老年人在温度骤变情况时的防病意识,降低死亡风险。Objective To understand the effect of daily average temperature on the daily death of circulatory and respiratory disease in Taizhou city.Methods Based on the daily mortality and meteorological data in Taizhou city from January 1,2016 to December 31,2020,we used a distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)to assess the correlation between daily average temperature and deaths from circulatory and respiratory disease adjusted for long-term trend,week effect and other confounding factors.Results The daily average temperature had a“J”-shaped effect curve on mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases.The cold effect had a delayed death effect,and the cold effect of temperature on mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases reached its maximum on the 5th and 6th day,with RR values of 1.04(1.02-1.06)and 1.04(1.01-1.06),respectively.The heat effect had an acute death effect,and the heat effect of temperature on mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases showed the maximum heat effect on the same day,with RR values of 1.28(1.23-1.34)and 1.29(1.20-1.38),respectively.The cumulative effect of low temperature on mortality in the circulatory system lagged strongest between 0-14 days,while the cumulative effect of high temperature on mortality in circulatory and respiratory diseases lagged strongest between 0-7 days.Conclusion Daily average temperature in Taizhou city is related to the deaths from circulatory and respiratory diseases,and there is a lag effect to some extent,so we should increase the awareness of disease prevention among the elderly and reduce the risk of death in the future.

关 键 词：每日平均温度 每日死亡数 滞后效应研究 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]