工业机器人应用、培训投资与退休行为  

Industrial Robots Application,Training Investment and Retirement Behavior

作　　者：蔚金霞 倪晨旭 高文书[2] Yu Jinxia;Ni Chenxu;Gao Wenshu(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,102488 [2]中国社会科学院大学,102488

出　　处：《经济评论》2025年第2期93-111,共19页Economic Review

基　　金：中国社会科学院大学研究生科研创新支持计划项目“工业机器人、培训投资与提前退休”(2023-KY-53)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于工业机器人应用冲击,将技术变革、人力资本投资和退休决策纳入统一分析框架,考察了中老年劳动力在技术快速变革下的退休行为。利用多层次微观调查数据进行实证分析发现,工业机器人应用显著提升了中老年劳动力的退休概率。一方面,总体就业环境恶化,市场对中老年劳动力的就业需求下降,其失业风险上升,“沮丧的工人效应”使其选择退休;另一方面,技能劳动者能够在技能偏向型技术变革下维持其就业竞争优势,但并未能在工资收入上获得技能的补偿性差异,再培训投资的成本收益失衡导致中老年劳动力留在劳动力市场的动力减弱。异质性分析表明,受教育程度较低、年龄较大和女性等就业环境较差的群体,更易受到工业机器人应用的影响而选择退休。本文的结论表明,提供有效的技能培训投资和转岗支持对提高中老年劳动力的就业韧性具有重要作用。This paper is based on the impact of industrial robot applications,incorporating technological change,human capital investment,and retirement decisions into a unified analysis framework to examine the retirement behavior of the middle-aged and elderly labor force under the rapid technological change.Empirical analysis using multi-level micro survey data shows that the application of industrial robots significantly increases the retirement probability of middle-aged and elderly labor force.On the one hand,the overall employment environment deteriorated,the employment demand for the middle-aged and elderly labor decreased,and the risk of unemployment increased,resulting in the"discouraged workers"effect,leading them to choose retirement.On the other hand,skilled workers can maintain their competitive advantage in employment under skill-biased technological changes,but they have not been able to obtain compensatory differences in skill income.The cost-benefit imbalance of retraining investment weakens the motivation for middle-aged and elderly labor to stay in the labor market.Heterogeneity analysis shows that groups with poorer employment environments,such as those with lower education levels,older age,and women,are more likely to be affected by industrial robot applications and tend to retire.The conclusion indicates that providing effective investment in skills training and job transfer support is of great significance in improving the employment resilience of the middle-aged and elderly population.

关 键 词：就业 退休 工业机器人应用 技术进步 培训投资 

分 类 号：F403.6[经济管理—产业经济] F241.2