降碳背景下可再生能源政策评价及有效性研究  

Research on the Evaluation and Effectiveness of Renewable Energy Policies under the Background of Carbon Reduction

作　　者：向琳 张杨 XIANG Lin;ZHANG Yang

机构地区：[1]湖南大学 [2]湖南涉外经济学院 [3]湖南工商大学廉政建设协同创新中心

出　　处：《科学决策》2025年第2期91-106,共16页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(21A0389)。

摘　　要：降碳的重点是发展可再生能源,倾向性政策有重要影响。通过文本挖掘和内容分析法,对2007-2022年央地支持政策文本,测算产业发展效力及影响程度,并进一步检验其驱动机制。结果表明:(1)大多样本年央地政策效力处上升趋势并保持较高水平,且中央政策有更高效力和低递减效应。(2)政策显著推动产业发展,但存在细分差异,对太阳能影响最明显,风电次之,水电不显著。(3)政府环保决心可增强政策对产业发展的推动作用,风电尤为明显。The focus of carbon reduction is the development of renewable energy,and preferential policies have a significant impact.Through text mining and content analysis,this study examines the policy texts of central and local government support from 2007 to 2022,measures the effectiveness of industrial development and the degree of influence,and further tests the driving mechanisms.The results show that:(1) The effectiveness of central and local policies is on an upward trend and remains at a high level in most sample years,with central policies having higher effectiveness and lower diminishing effects.(2) Policies significantly promote industrial development,but there are differences in sub-sectors,with the most significant impact on solar power,followed by wind power,and no significant impact on hydropower.(3) The government’s determination to protect the environment can enhance the role of policies in promoting industrial development,especially in wind power.

关 键 词：可再生能源产业 产业政策 效力指数 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]