共生视角下跨境产业链合作对我国制造业出口贸易韧性的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Cross-border Industrial Chain Cooperation from a Symbiotic Perspective on the Resilience of China’s Manufacturing Export Trade

作　　者：唐红祥[1] 谢廷宇 崔冉 TANG Hong-xiang;XIE Ting-yu;CUI Ran

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院 [2]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院 [3]广西财经学院金融与保险学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2025年第3期1-21,共21页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AJY004);广西哲学社会科学基金重点项目(20AJY002);第三期广西高等学校千名中青年骨干教师培育计划人文社会科学类立项课题:制造业跨境转移过度化对西部地区产业转型升级的影响及对策研究;广西财经学院向海经济研究院课题。

摘　　要：在全球产业链重构与贸易摩擦加剧的背景下,我国制造业出口韧性面临严峻挑战,亟需通过跨境产业链合作提升其稳定性和竞争力。本文从跨境产业链共生视角出发,探讨其对我国制造业出口韧性的影响机理及实证表现。研究首先梳理了跨境产业链共生的融合性、依存性、互补性和竞争性四大特性,分析其对贸易韧性的潜在影响路径。随后,利用2009—2020年的面板数据,结合UIBE GVC数据库,构建了跨境产业链共生的量化指标,并采用固定效应模型进行实证检验。结果表明,跨境产业链的融合度和依存度对我国制造业出口韧性具有显著的正向促进作用,而互补度和竞争度则表现出一定的负向抑制效应。进一步的异质性分析发现,“一带一路”倡议提出后,融合度的正向作用增强,而依存度的正向作用有所减弱;东盟地区作为我国重要贸易伙伴,其与我国的跨境产业链共生特性对出口韧性的影响更为复杂,融合度的促进作用更强,但互补度和竞争度的抑制作用也更为显著。本文的研究为我国在全球产业链重构中优化跨境合作策略、提升制造业出口韧性提供了理论依据和政策建议,有助于我国在复杂国际环境中实现经济的高质量发展和产业链的稳定升级。Against the backdrop of global industrial chain restructuring and escalating trade frictions,China’s manufacturing export resilience faces significant challenges,necessitating enhancements in stability and competitiveness through cross-border industrial chain cooperation.This paper adopts the perspective of crossborder industrial chain symbiosis to explore its impact mechanisms and empirical manifestations on the export resilience of China’s manufacturing sector.The study begins by outlining the four key characteristics of cross-border industrial chain symbiosis:integration,interdependence,complementarity,and competition,and analyzes their potential impact pathways on trade resilience.Utilizing panel data from 2009 to 2020 and integrating it with the UIBE GVC database,the research constructs a quantitative indicator for cross-border industrial chain symbiosis,which is then empirically tested using a fixed effects model.The findings reveal that the degrees of integration and interdependence within cross-border industrial chains significantly enhance the export resilience of China’s manufacturing sector,while complementarity and competition exhibit certain negative inhibitory effects.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that following the initiation of the“Belt and Road”initiative,the positive effect of integration has strengthened,whereas the positive impact of interdependence has somewhat diminished.As an important trading partner,the ASEAN region’s cross-border industrial chain symbiosis characteristics exert a more complex influence on export resilience,demonstrating a stronger promotional effect from integration but also more pronounced inhibitory effects from complementarity and competition.This research provides a theoretical foundation and policy recommendations for optimizing cross-border cooperation strategies and enhancing the export resilience of China’s manufacturing industry amid global industrial chain restructuring.Consequently,it facilitates China’s pursuit of high-quality economic

关 键 词：跨境产业链共生 制造业 出口韧性 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]