城乡居民消费结构趋同升级的碳排放效应  

The Carbon Emission Effect of the Convergence and Upgrading of Consumption Structure among Urban and Rural Residents

作　　者：宋平平[1] 孙皓 SONG Ping-ping;SUN Hao

机构地区：[1]北京开放大学商学院 [2]北京物资学院经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院技术创新与战略管理研究中心

出　　处：《科学决策》2025年第3期58-68,共11页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21FJYB040)。

摘　　要：把握居民消费结构绿色低碳演化的趋势效应,有助于推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型。本文从内部效应和外部效应出发,基于1981-2022年的经济和环境发展数据,综合利用向量自回归模型(VAR)模型和动态Probit模型等方法,对城乡居民消费结构趋同升级的碳排放效应进行研究。在测度城乡居民消费结构趋同性的基础上,从碳排放贡献和减排需求潜力角度分析城乡居民消费结构趋同的碳排放效应及其影响因素。通过研究发现,城乡居民消费结构趋同能够促进高层次消费项目碳排放相对贡献逐渐增大,明显降低经济增长的碳排放量,具有较强的减排需求潜力。需要通过促进绿色科技创新等途径强化城乡居民消费结构的绿色趋同。Grasping the trend effect of green and low-carbon evolution of residents’consumption structure can help promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.This article starts from internal and external effects,based on economic and environmental development data from 1981 to 2022,and comprehensively uses methods such as vector autoregression(VAR)model and dynamic Probit model to study the carbon emission effects of the convergence of urban and rural residents’consumption structure.On the basis of measuring the convergence of consumption structure between urban and rural residents,analyze the carbon emission contribution and emission reduction demand potential of the convergence of consumption structure between urban and rural residents,and then identify the influencing factors of carbon emission effects.Through research,it has been found that the convergence of consumption structures between urban and rural residents will gradually increase the relative contribution of carbon emissions from high-level consumption projects,which can significantly reduce the carbon emissions of economic growth and has strong potential for emission reduction demand.It is necessary to strengthen the green convergence of urban and rural residents’consumption structure through promoting green technology innovation and other means.

关 键 词：居民消费结构 趋同升级 碳排放效应 结构贡献 减排潜力 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]