2024年美国大选与民主党的政治重组  

The 2024 US Presidential Election and the Political Realignment of the Democratic Party

作　　者：刘春朋 LIU Chunpeng(Yancheng Teachers'University,School of Marxism,Yancheng 224007,China)

机构地区：[1]盐城师范学院马克思主义学院,江苏盐城224007

出　　处：《太原学院学报(社会科学版)》2025年第3期32-47,共16页Journal of Taiyuan University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：随着民主党在2024年美国总统大选中的全面溃败,其内部就失利的原因展开了深入反思和谈论。其中,民主党内的进步派和中间派更是相互指责,将该党的失利归咎于对方推行的路线上。事实上,早在奥巴马政府时期,民主党内部就已显示出“重组”迹象,并主要体现在其权力结构的持续精英化、竞选路线的不断冲突化、意识形态的加剧对抗化等。然而,由于近些年民主党在美国人口结构于己有利前提下竞选预期不佳,其内部的重组进程进一步加快,不仅党内白人自由主义者主导政策偏好的能力被削弱,而且内部呼吁重走“第三条道路”的声音日渐高涨。加快民主党内部政治重组的主要动因有选民意识形态的转变、文化战争的深入发展、特朗普及其“特朗普主义”的影响以及共和党内部结构的调整等。短期来看,民主党的内部重组将进一步加剧党内多股力量的冲突和对立,进而可能削弱民主党的对外凝聚力。长期而言,民主党的内部重组是美国历史上政治重组循环周期的正常环节,可能预示着美国即将来临的新一轮政党重组。如果重组过程相对顺利,民主党可以顺势实现政治转型,为后期的权力争夺奠定坚实基础。相反,一旦重组失败或陷入长期内耗,民主党的一致对外能力必然将严重受损,从而可能导致其存续问题难以保证。Following the Democratic PartyS abysmal defeat in the 2024 US presidential election,extensive introspection and dehates have been triggered within the party regarding the causes of this loss.Notably,the Progressive and the Moderate have engaged in mutual recriminations,each attributing the failure to the others strategy.In reality,the Ohama administration saw the signals of internal realignment within the Democratic Party,which is characterized by the persistence of elitism in its power structure,ongoing conflicts in campaign strategies,and heightened ideological polarization.However,despite favorable demographic trends in the United Stales,the Party's poor electoral performance in recent years has accelerated this process.The acceleration has not only strengthened the influence of white liberals on policy preferences but also amplified calls for a return to the third way approach.The primary drivers of this accelerated political restructuring include shifts in voter ideology,deepening cultural divisions,the impact of Trump and his"Trumpism",and changes within the Republican Party.In tire short term,this realignment may intensify conflicts and antagonisms among various aspects within the party,potentially weakening its external cohesion.In the long run,however,it is a normal part of the cyclical nature of political realignment in US history and could signal an impending round of broader political restructuring.If it proceeds smoothly,the Democratic Party can achieve political transformation in line with current trends,laying a solid foundation for future power struggles.Conversely,if it fails or becomes mired in conflict,the Party's unified external capability is hound to be critically undermined,which may fundamentally threaten its survival prospects.

关 键 词：美国民主党 内部重组 2024年大选 进步派 中间派 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]