基于改进SEWM-CRITIC博弈集成云的城市燃气PE管道风险评价方法  

Risk assessment method for city gas PE pipelines based on improved SEWM-CRITIC game integrated cloud

作　　者：张鹏[1] 刘为 沈豪 肖博文 宋文琦 刘思铭 ZHANG Peng;LIU Wei;SHEN Hao;XIAO Bowen;SONG Wenqi;LIU Siming(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;School of Mechatronic Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;PetroChina Pipeline Engineering Corporation,Langfang 065000,China;School of Petroleum Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;PipeChina Southwest Pipeline Company,Chengdu 610094,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学机电工程学院,四川成都610500 [3]中国石油天然气管道工程有限公司,河北廊坊065000 [4]西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,四川成都610500 [5]国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司,四川成都610094

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2025年第2期116-123,132,共9页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD105)。

摘　　要：为解决城市燃气PE管道的安全评估问题,提出一种基于博弈集成云模型的管道风险评价法。以西南某地区城市燃气PE管道为研究对象,通过全息直觉模糊集(HHM-IFS)选取并筛选了5项一级指标,22项二级指标;利用基于博弈论主客观权衡改进的结构熵权(SEWM)法与基于指标相关性的权重赋权系数(CRITIC)法,以云理论为基础构建了充分考虑模糊性与随机性的博弈集成云模型,并确定了管道风险等级。结果表明,该区燃气管道为中等风险等级,应该重点关注回填质量、自然灾害、钢塑接头腐蚀、运行误操作、地形以及生物侵蚀等风险薄弱项。分析结果与实际工程相吻合,证明了该方法是一种科学合理的评估方法,为更有效地评估城市燃气PE管道的安全状态提供了新途径。To address the safety assessment of city gas PE pipelines,this study proposes a game-theoretic integrated cloud model for risk evaluation.Taking city gas PE pipelines in a southwestern region as the research object,five primary and twenty-two secondary indicators were selected through the holographic hierarchical model intuitionistic fuzzy set(HHM-IFS).A cloud theory-based framework was developed by integrating an improved structural entropy weight method(SEWM)algorithm enhanced with game theory for subjective-objective trade-offs and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)algorithm.A comprehensive risk level determination model that accounts for both fuzziness and randomness was established by this approach.The results indicate a moderate risk level for the pipelines,with critical vulnerabilities identified as backfill quality,natural disasters,steel-plastic joint corrosion,operational errors,terrain factors,and biological erosion.Validation against practical engineering scenarios confirms the method’s scientific validity,offering a novel pathway for effectively assessing safety conditions of city gas pe pipelines.

关 键 词：城市燃气PE管道 风险评价 博弈论 集成云模型 全息直觉模糊集(HHM-IFS) 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]