堤坝水泥土桩防渗墙渗透系数的概率分布类型研究  

Study on Probability Distribution Type for Permeability Coefficient of Soil-Cement Pile Grouting Wall in Levee or Earth-Rock Dam

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作  者:何金文[1,2] 张诗瑶 潘春玲 胡世燃 HE Jinwen;ZHANG Shiyao;PAN Chunling;HU Shiran(Hubei Key Laboratory of Hydropower Engineering Construction and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Fujian Research Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区:[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]福建省水利水电科学研究院,福州350001

出  处:《三峡大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期36-42,共7页Journal of China Three Gorges University:Natural Sciences

基  金:国家自然科学基金项目(51909137);福建省水利科技项目(MSK202502,MSK202305)。

摘  要:在堤坝渗流破坏的风险评价和可靠度分析中,确定渗透系数的概率分布类型非常必要.基于15座堤防和土石坝水泥土桩防渗墙渗透系数的检测数据,根据K-S检验判别可通过的概率分布类型、误差平方和最小识别最优概率分布类型、Bootstrap方法模拟K-S检验及最优概率分布类型识别结果的统计不确定性.结果显示:2座水库根据K-S检验最大偏差最小与根据误差平方和最小确定的水泥土桩渗透系数最优概率分布类型不一致;15个工程中威布尔分布被识别为水泥土桩渗透系数最优概率分布类型的有14个,对数正态最优仅1个;水泥土桩渗透系数的概率分布类型取对数正态与威布尔分布的累积分布函数差值随变异系数的增大而增大,变异系数为0.75时最大差值达0.088.当备选概型为截尾正态、对数正态、截尾极值Ⅰ型和威布尔分布时,堤坝水泥土桩防渗墙渗透系数的优势最优概型为威布尔分布.研究结果可为堤坝水泥土桩防渗工程的渗流破坏可靠度计算提供概率分布类型.It's necessary to determine the distribution type for permeability coefficient in the risk assessment and reliability analysis of seepage failure for levee or earth-rock dam.Based on the test data of soil-cement piles in 15 levees and earth-rock dams,K-S test is used to determine distribution type pass or not,the minimum summation of squared errors criterion to identify the best distribution type,and the statistical uncertainty by Bootstrap method for the K-S test and the identification of the best distribution type.The results show that the distribution type with the K-S test is inconsistent with the minimum summation of squared errors criterion in 2 reservoirs.Weibull distribution is identified as the best distribution type for permeability coefficient of soil-cement pile grouting wall in 14 projects,while lognormal distribution only in 1 project.The difference between the cumulative distribution function(CDF)lognormal distribution and Weibull distribution increases with the coefficient of variation,and the maximum difference reaches 0.088 when the coefficient of variation is 0.75.When the truncated normal distribution,lognormal distribution,the truncated extreme value I-type distribution,and Weibull distribution are chosen as the alternative probability distribution types,the dominant and best distribution type of permeability coefficient of soil-cement pile cutoff wall is Weibull distribution.The research results can provide a reference for the permeability reliability calculation of levee or earth-rock dam with soil-cement pile.

关 键 词:堤防 土石坝 水泥土桩 渗透系数 概率分布类型 统计不确定性 

分 类 号:TV641.2[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV543

 

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