降雨因子对滑坡形成的时空影响分析——以江西省滑坡为例  

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Influence of Rainfall Factor on Landslide Formation---Landslides in Jiangxi Province as an Example

作　　者：李佳潼 吴华 徐悦 郭齐韵 李慧珊 马铭鑫 LI Jiatong;WU Hua;XU Yue;GUO Qiyun;LI Huishan;MA Mingxin(College of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China;Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Monitoring of Highland Surface Environment,Lhasa 850000,China;Bomi Geological Hazards Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of the Ministry of Education,Nyingchi 860300,China;Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau,Nanchang 330000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,拉萨850000 [2]高原地表环境遥感监测联合实验室,拉萨850000 [3]波密地质灾害教育部野外科学观测研究站,西藏林芝860300 [4]南昌市气象局,南昌330000

出　　处：《三峡大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期43-49,共7页Journal of China Three Gorges University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U23A2047);中央引导地方项目(XZ202401YD0028);西藏自治区科技计划项目(XZ202402ZD001);高原地热新能源创新团队与实验室平台建设(2022ZDTD10)。

摘　　要：降雨因子是形成降雨型滑坡的重要影响因素.为探究非均一性滑坡与均一性降雨因子的关系,本文基于ArcGIS、SPSS和RStudio平台,利用聚类分析、主成分分析和因子分析方法,分析江西省间接前期降雨、直接前期降雨、间接前期当日降雨量以及间接前期降雨总量各因子对滑坡发生的影响.结果表明:九江、宜春、新余、萍乡地区均存在累计降雨效应并呈地域性分布,但不同地区受降雨数据贡献程度存在差异;降雨型滑坡的影响因素要考虑至少10 d的降雨数据,滑坡发生长时序降雨作为独立变量对江西省滑坡贡献最大.探寻江西省滑坡灾害的发生规律,可为后续的预测预报研究和发生极端降雨后及时的应对决策等提供依据.Rainfall factor is an important influencing factor on the formation of rainfall-type landslides.In order to investigate the relationship between non-homogeneous landslides and homogeneous rainfall factors,this paper analyzes the effects of indirect prior rainfall,direct prior rainfall,indirect prior rainfall on the same day,and indirect prior rainfall amount on the occurrence of landslides based on the platforms of ArcGIS,SPSS,and RStudio by using the methods of cluster analysis,principal component analysis,and factor analysis in Jiangxi Province.The results show that:the cumulative rainfall effect exists and is geographically distributed in Jiujiang,Yichun,Xinyu,and Pingxiang regions,but there are differences in the contribution degree of rainfall data in different regions;at least 10 days of rainfall data should be considered in analyzing rainfall-type landslides.The rainfall in a long time-series is the most important contributing factor to the landslides in Jiangxi Province.Exploring the occurrence pattern of landslide disasters in Jiangxi Province can provide a basis for subsequent prediction and forecasting studies and timely response decision-making after the occurrence of extreme rainfall.

关 键 词：前期降雨量 降雨型滑坡 聚类分析 主成分分析 蒸发 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学] P694