基于易发性评价的泥石流沟危险范围模拟预测研究——以得荣县为例  

Simulation and Prediction of Dangerous Range of Debris Flow Gully Based on Vulnerability Assessment:a Case Study of Derong County

作　　者：宋俊钢 杨顺[1,2] 焦加璇 黄韵琪 SONG Jungang;YANG Shun;JIAO Jiaxuan;HUANG Yunqi(School of Emergency Management,Xihua University,Chengdu 610000,China;Sichuan Provincial College of Emergency Management,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]西华大学应急管理学院,成都610000 [2]四川省应急管理学院,成都610000

出　　处：《三峡大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期50-58,共9页Journal of China Three Gorges University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：西华大学人才引进项目(Z211016);日本研究中心项目(RBYJ2022-003);成都市科技厅揭榜挂帅应急类项目(2024-JB00-00006-SN)。

摘　　要：以四川省甘孜州得荣县泥石流灾害作为研究对象,选取流域面积、平均坡度、沟壑密度、距断层距离、距河流距离、距道路距离6个易发因素,通过信息量模型和GIS平台的栅格数据分析功能,计算各个易发因子分级状态下的信息量分布,得到了得荣县4个等级的易发性评价结果,后用频率比验证了分析结果的可靠性.再选取高易发典型-吉冲村泥石流沟基于Massflow数值模拟软件,选择Voellmy模型对(1%、2%、5%)3种重现期泥石流运动过程进行模拟,得到泥深、流速、堆积范围的模拟结果,最后根据结果计算结合遥感影像得到了泥石流沟危险范围预测结果.结果表明:得荣县泥石流极高易发地区集中于太阳谷镇、茨巫乡等地区;吉冲村泥石流沟3种降雨条件下的泥石流会对吉冲村小学前后110~570 m范围造成威胁.本研究为当地的防灾减灾、风险管控工作提供一定的科学依据和参考意义.In this paper,debris flow disaster in Derong County,Garze Prefecture,Sichuan Province was selected as the research object,and six prone factors,i.e.,basin area,average slope,gully density,distance from fault,distance from river,and distance from road were selected.The information distribution under each prone factor classification was calculated through information model and raster data analysis function in a GIS platform.Four levels of susceptibility evaluation in Derong County were obtained,and the result reliability was verified by frequency ratio.The Voellmy model was selected to simulate the debris flow movement process in three recurrence periods(1%,2%and 5%)based on Massflow software,and the mud depth,velocity,and accumulation range were calculated.Finally,according to the simulation results and remote sensing images,the prediction results of the danger range of debris flow gully were obtained.The results show that the areas prone to extremely high debris flow in Derong County are concentrated in the areas of Yanggu Town and Ciwu County.Mudslide in Jichong Village under three rainfall conditions will pose a threat to the area of 110-570 m around Jichong Village primary school. It provides a certain scientific basis and reference significance for local disaster prevention and reduction, and risk management and control.

关 键 词：得荣县 易发性分析 泥石流 数值模拟 危险预测 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]