财政分权对养老金可持续性的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Pension Sustainability

作　　者：孙榕 于文广 黄玉娟[3] Sun Rong;Yu Wenguang;Huang Yujuan

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学统计与数学学院 [2]山东财经大学保险学院,250014 [3]山东交通学院理学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2025年第3期14-33,共20页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“健康人力资本红利视角下低龄老年劳动就业的决策机理、价值效应与保障机制研究”(22CJJJ29)资助。

摘　　要：养老金可持续发展不仅直接关系到民生福祉和社会安稳,还是推动经济高质量发展的重要引擎。文章基于财政分权视角阐述养老金可持续性问题,并采用我国2011—2022年的省级面板数据,实证检验财政分权对养老金可持续性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:财政分权对养老金可持续性存在显著的负向影响,且该影响在中西部地区更为显著;机制检验结果表明,财政分权通过加剧地方政府竞争和扭曲地方政府偏好对养老金可持续性产生负面影响;调节效应检验结果显示,数字经济发展水平的提高会削弱财政分权对养老金可持续性的负面冲击;进一步研究发现,财政分权对养老金可持续性的负面效应存在非线性,在经济发展水平和科技创新水平的约束下,该负面效应呈现出“边际效应递减”的特征;另外,财政分权对养老金可持续性的影响不仅取决于财政分权的自身变动,还与养老金可持续程度的变动情况有关。文章拓展了既有养老金可持续性影响因素、财政分权经济后果的相关理论研究,所取得一系列结论为规范地方政府决策行为、实现我国养老金制度稳健运行提供了有价值的经验证据和政策参考。The sustainable development of pensions is not only directly related to people′s well-being and social stability,but also an important engine for promoting high-quality economic development.This article delves into the issue of pension sustainability through the lens of fiscal decentralization,and employs provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022 in China to empirically examine the impact of fiscal decentralization on pension sustainability and its underlying mechanisms.The study found that fiscal decentralization has a significant negative impact on the sustainability of pensions,and this impact is more pronounced in the central and western regions.The results of the mechanism test indicate that fiscal decentralization has a negative impact on the sustainability of pensions by intensifying local government competition and distorting local government preferences;The test results of the moderating effect show that the improvement of the level of digital economy development will weaken the negative impact of fiscal decentralization on the sustainability of pensions;Further research found that there is a nonlinear negative effect of fiscal decentralization on the sustainability of pensions,and under the constraints of economic development level and technological innovation level,this negative effect exhibits a characteristic of"diminishing marginal effect";In addition,the impact of fiscal decentralization on the sustainability of pensions depends not only on the changes in fiscal decentralization itself,but also on the changes in the sustainability of pensions.The article not only expands the existing theoretical research on the factors affecting the sustainability of pensions and the economic consequences of fiscal decentralization,but also provides valuable empirical evidence and policy references for regulating local government decision-making behavior and achieving the stable operation of China′s pension system.

关 键 词：财政分权 养老金可持续性 地方政府竞争 政府支出偏好 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险] F812