政府社会救助制度缓解中国家庭经济风险的多维路径——基于负向收入不确定性视角  

The Multi-dimensional Approach of Government Social Assistance System to Alleviate Financial Risks of Chinese Household Based on Negative Income Uncertainty Perspective

作　　者：金双华[1] 孟令雨 于征莆 Jin Shuanghua;Meng Lingyu;Yu Zhengpu

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学财政税务学院,116025

出　　处：《南方经济》2025年第3期34-57,共24页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点建设学科项目“共同富裕视角下辽宁省财政性社会保障收支政策对收入分配调节效应研究”(L23ZD021)资助。

摘　　要：政府社会救助是国家履行民生兜底保障责任的重要政策工具,也是防范化解家庭经济风险的关键举措。文章引入生命周期模型从理论层面厘清政府社会救助与负向收入不确定性对家庭经济风险的影响效应和作用机制,并基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015—2019年三期面板数据,运用Probit模型和IV-Tobit模型进行实证检验。研究结果显示:政府社会救助可以缓解负向收入不确定性对家庭经济风险的不利影响。机制分析表明,政府社会救助主要从“授人以鱼”和“授人以渔”两个维度影响负向收入不确定性家庭的经济风险。具体而言,政府社会救助不仅可以缓解流动性约束和降低债务杠杆率发挥“授人以鱼”作用,还可以培育健康人力资本和提高非农就业比例发挥“授人以渔”作用。针对分层分类政府社会救助体系的进一步分析表明,相较于专项救助和急难救助,基本生活救助更能发挥防风险作用;面对负向收入不确定性,政府社会救助能显著降低居住在农村地区、受教育程度较低家庭的经济风险,却未能妥善应对因病致贫家庭的经济风险。针对上述结论,文章认为应拓宽低收入人口动态监测范围,强化政府社会救助政策多重功能,健全分层分类政府社会救助体系,以缓解负向收入不确定性引致的家庭经济风险。Government social assistance is a crucial policy instrument for the state to fulfill its obligations regarding public welfare,and it is also a vital measure instrument to prevent and resolve household financial risks.We introduce a life cycle model to clarify the theoretical mechanism of the impact of government social assistance and negative income uncertainty on household financial risks,and analyze the pathways of action from the perspectives of"giving people fish"and"teaching people to fish".Then,taking micro panel data from the China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017,and 2019 as samples,the probability and degree of household financial risks were identified and measured from two dimensions:financial margin and solvency.The Probit model and IV Tobit model were used to empirically test the impact and multi-dimensional path of government social assistance policies on the probability and degree of financial risks of households with negative income uncertainty.The result shows that government social assistance significantly reduces the probability and degree of financial risks for households with negative income uncertainty,and this result remains significant after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that government social assistance mainly affects the financial risks of households with negative income uncertainty through two ways:"giving people fish"and"teaching people to fish".Specifically,government social assistance can not only alleviate liquidity constraints and reduce debt leverage to play a role in"giving people fish",but also cultivate healthy human capital and increase the proportion of non-agricultural employment to play a role in"teaching people to fish".Further analysis of the hierarchical classification of government social assistance shows that basic living assistance plays a significant role in risk prevention,while the role of other assistances are not significant;Faced with negative income uncertainty,government social assistance can better reduce the financial risks of fam

关 键 词：政府社会救助 家庭经济风险 负向收入不确定性 分层分类 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]