相对技术进步与我国农产品消费需求结构——基于价格效应和共同富裕效应的视角  

Relative Technological Progress and Consumption Demand Structure of Agricultural Products in China:Based on Price Effect and Common Prosperity Effect

作　　者：陈卓然 周先波[2] 吴英明 Chen Zhuoran;Zhou Xianbo;Wu Yingming

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院 [2]中山大学岭南学院,510275

出　　处：《南方经济》2025年第3期80-96,共17页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用研究”(21ZDA036);广东省自然科学基金项目(2022A1515011890)资助。

摘　　要：我国农产品消费需求占比在改革开放后40多年间持续下降,而城乡技术进步差异在不断扩大,后者可能挤压了社会对农产品的消费需求。文章以此事实为背景和研究动因,探讨相对技术进步对农业与非农两部门产品消费需求差异的间接影响效应。结果表明,相对技术进步通过提升农业部门相对于非农部门的产品价格和降低农业部门相对于非农部门工人的工资水平,可以降低农产品的消费需求占比,最终扩大农产品与非农产品的消费需求差异。文章首先通过构建理论模型,分解出相对技术进步对于农产品消费需求占比的影响的两种渠道:价格效应渠道和共同富裕效应渠道。利用1978年到2021年我国分省面板数据,文章实证验证了相对技术进步影响农产品消费需求占比总效应的分解机制,并估计了价格效应和共同富裕效应在总效应中的贡献。研究表明,我们应将农业技术进步的提升放在突出位置,这对我国保障农业初级产品供给具有政策启示;文章通过理论模型和实证分析,从相对技术进步的视角全面揭示了我国农业产品消费需求下降的内在机制,为理解我国农业部门在新时代面临的挑战和制定有效的政策提供了重要的参考依据。The proportion of consumption demand for agricultural products in China has been continuously declining for more than 40 years after the reform and opening-up while the gap in technological progress between urban and rural areas is constantly expanding,which may squeeze the consumption demand of agricultural products.With this fact as the background and research motivation,this paper analyzes the indirect effects of non-agricultural and agricultural relative technological progress on the difference in consumption demand through the price effect and the common prosperity effect.The results indicate that the relative technological progress reduces the proportion of consumption demand for agricultural products via increasing the prices of products in rural areas relative to cities and reducing the wage levels in rural areas relative to cities,and ultimately expands the differences in the product consumption demand between non-agricultural and agricultural products.Using provincial panel data from 1978 to 2021,we empirically verify the above theoretical mechanism,and estimate the contribution of the price effect to the effect and the common prosperity effect of relative technological progress on the consumption demand structure of agricultural products.This study shows that we should give prominence to improving agricultural technology progress,which has policy implications for ensuring the supply of agricultural primary products in China.

关 键 词：相对技术进步 农产品消费需求结构 价格效应 共同富裕效应 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]