基于贝叶斯算法的石化车间气体泄漏风险评估研究  

Research on Gas Leakage Risk Assessment in Petrochemical Workshop Based on Bayesian Algorithm

作　　者：许扬毅 韦君婷 陈诗琪 梁咏锋 梅浩文 Xu Yangyi;Wei Junting;Chen Shiqi;Liang Yongfeng;Mei Haowen(Maoming Youchuang Chemical Safety Technology Co.,Ltd.,Maoming 525000,China;Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology,Maoming 525000,China;China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation Maoming Branch,Maoming 525000,China)

机构地区：[1]茂名油创化工安全科技有限公司,广东茂名525000 [2]广东石油化工学院,广东茂名525000 [3]中国石油化工股份有限公司茂名分公司,广东茂名525000

出　　处：《广东化工》2025年第6期38-40,11,共4页Guangdong Chemical Industry

基　　金：茂名绿色化工研究院“扬帆计划”2022年度“应用创新”项目:化学品泄漏光学在线监测技术研究(MMGCIRI-2022YFJH-Y-051);2023年茂名市科技计划项目:石化企业风险评价技术研究(2023380);2024年度茂名市科技计划项目:基于Vue3及Express的化工生产调度管理系统(2024540)。

摘　　要：石化车间的生产作业中涉及大量具有毒性、易燃性等危险特性的化学气体,显著增加了安全风险。因此,有必要对其进行风险评估,以帮助企业了解并评估安全风险。本文创新提出一种石化车间气体泄漏风险评估模型构建方法。该模型以十个风险评估因子构建的风险评估指标为外框架,以贝叶斯算法为分析内核,能够结合历史数据、实时监测信息和专家经验,提高风险评估的准确性和可靠性。实现对石化车间气体泄漏风险等级的科学合理评估,突破传统石化车间气体泄漏风险评估模型的局限性,为石化车间生产安全风险评价研究提供科学参考。The production operations in the petrochemical workshop involve a large amount of chemical gases with hazardous characteristics such as toxicity and flammability,significantly increasing safety risks.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct a risk assessment to help businesses understand and evaluate security risks.This article proposes an innovative method for constructing a gas leakage risk assessment model in petrochemical workshops.This model uses ten risk assessment factors to construct risk assessment indicators as the outer framework,and Bayesian algorithm as the analysis core.It can combine historical data,real-time monitoring information,and expert experience to improve the accuracy and reliability of risk assessment.To achieve a scientific and reasonable assessment of gas leakage risk levels in petrochemical workshops,break through the limitations of traditional gas leakage risk assessment models in petrochemical workshops,and provide scientific references for research on workplace safety risk assessment in petrochemical workshops.

关 键 词：贝叶斯算法 石化车间 气体泄漏 风险评估 

分 类 号：X928.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]