三元空间视角下应急情报支持的风险溯源模型构建  

Research on Emergency Intelligence Risk Traceability from the Perspective of Three Dimensional Space

作　　者：刘毅洲 黄微[1] LIU Yizhou;HUANG Wei(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun,130022)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130022

出　　处：《科技情报研究》2025年第2期122-132,共11页Scientific Information Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“重大突发事件网络舆情受众的参与行为标定、轨迹拟合与靶向导控研究”(编号:72174072)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]在大应急格局下如何利用智能情报技术与服务的高价值进行风险溯源分析,是智能社会风险治理亟须解决的难题。[方法/过程]基于三元空间理论对突发事件风险进行边界划分,从物理空间、社会空间、信息空间3个维度,应用大模型因果关系抽取、复杂网络分析、自然语言处理等智能情报技术实现应急情报收集与分析,对事理风险源、环境风险源等7个要素构建风险溯源模型,并进行实证研究。[结果/结论]物理空间风险源在向其他空间进行风险传导的过程中起到关键性作用,在风险爆发初期的分布较为密集,而社会空间和信息空间的风险源分布,随时间的发展表现出周期相似的相位滞后效应。信息空间中的情感风险源多数处于节点网络核心位置,是引发节点间非理性行为的重要因素,信息风险源的社会空间风险特征不明显。[Purpose/significance]How to leverage the high value of intelligent intelligence technology and services for risk traceability analysis in the context of large-scale emergency situations is an urgent challenge that needs to be ad⁃dressed in the governance of risks in an intelligent society.[Method/process]Based on the theory of ternary space,the risk of emergencies is divided into three dimensions:physical space,social space,and information space.Intelligent intelligence technologies such as large model causal relationship extraction,complex network analysis,and natural language processing are applied to collect and analyze emergency intelligence.A risk traceability model is construct⁃ed for seven elements including event risk sources and environmental risk sources,and empirical research is conduct⁃ed.[Result/conclusion]Physical spatial risk sources play a crucial role in the process of risk transmission to other spac⁃es,with a relatively dense distribution in the early stages of risk outbreaks,while the distribution of risk sources in so⁃cial and information spaces exhibits a phase lag effect with similar periodicity over time.The emotional risk sources in the information space are mostly located at the core of the node network,which is an important factor in triggering irra⁃tional behavior between nodes.The social spatial risk characteristics of information risk sources are not obvious.

关 键 词：风险溯源 三元空间 应急情报支持 智能情报技术 社会治理 风险传导 重大突发事件 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]