1979—2021年南极洲飞机可起降率的气候态及其年际变化趋势研究  

Climatological distribution,interannual variation,and trend of aircraft take-off and landing rate in Antarctica(1979-2021)

作　　者：卢嘉杰 程灵巧 于乐江 肖恩照 张建军 陈望春 倪洪波 霍海峰 张波 张体军 孙波 LU Jiajie;CHENG Lingqiao;YU Lejiang;XIAO Enzhao;ZHANG Jianjun;CHEN Wangchun;NI Hongbo;HUO Haifeng;ZHANG Bo;ZHANG Tijun;SUN Bo(College of Oceanography and Ecology Science,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory for Polar Science,Ministry of Natural Resources,Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China;Polar Engineering Technology Innovation Center,Polar Research Institute of China,Ministry of Natural Resources,Shanghai 200136,China;R&D Division of Polar Snow and Ice Runways,Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai,200136,China;Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute of COMAC,Shanghai 201210,China;China Airport Planning and Design Research Institute Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100029,China;China Flight Test Research Institute,Xian 710089,China;College of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Hulun Buir Meteorological Bureau,Hulun Buir 021008,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学与生态环境学院,上海201306 [2]自然资源部极地科学重点实验室,中国极地研究中心(中国极地研究所),上海200136 [3]中国极地研究中心(中国极地研究所),自然资源部极地工程技术创新中心,上海200136 [4]中国极地研究中心(中国极地研究所),极地冰雪跑道研究院,上海200136 [5]中国商用飞机有限责任公司,上海飞机设计研究院,上海201210 [6]民航机场规划设计研究总院有限公司,北京100029 [7]中国飞行试验研究院,陕西西安710089 [8]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300 [9]呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔021008

出　　处：《极地研究》2025年第1期26-38,共13页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC2807101);国家自然科学基金(42130402)资助。

摘　　要：基于1979—2021年的气象再分析数据,本文研究了南极洲的近地面气象要素满足航空起降要求的概率分布(即可起降率的变化)。结果表明,南极洲飞机可起降率具有显著的季节性和空间差异等时空变化特征:西南极飞机可起降率总是高于东南极高原区域,如西南极的夏季可起降率气候态平均高达57.0%,而东南极的高原区域只达到49.4%;夏季最高,然后依次为春季、秋季和冬季。从长期变化趋势角度来看,夏季大部分内陆地区飞机的可起降率呈现显著降低趋势,多数沿海地区可起降率呈上升趋势;在春季,大部分高原地区和威德尔海内侧地区等飞机可起降率也呈现显著上升趋势。在考虑日照时间的前提下,各个子区域的大部分季节里近地面风速、温度和能见度的影响各异。沿海地区飞机可起降率更易受风速影响,高纬地区(包括东南极高原和整个西南极)更易受降雨(含降雪)情况控制的能见度影响。此外,南极几个主要冰架区域升温严重,因此,在机场选址时还应考虑冰架或内部冰盖崩塌的潜在威胁。Based on meteorological reanalysis data obtained during 1979—2021,this study evaluated the probability distribution of near-surface meteorological elements in Antarctica to meet the requirements of aviation take-off and landing(i.e.,the change in take-off and landing rate;TLR).Results showed that the aircraft TLR has substantial spatiotemporal variability over the Antarctic continent.In West Antarctica,the TLR is always higher than that in East Antarctica Plateau region.For example,the climatological average summer TLR in West Antarctica reaches a maximum of 57.0%,while that in East Antarctica reaches only 49.4%in the plateau areas.The TLR is highest in summer,followed in descending order by that in spring,autumn,and winter.From the perspective of the long-term trend,the TLR in most inland areas in summer has a notable decreasing trend,while that in most coastal areas has an increasing trend.In spring,the TLR in most plateau areas and the inner area of the Weddell Sea has a strong upward trend.When sunshine hours are considered,the effects of near-surface wind speed,temperature,and visibility vary in most seasons in each sub-region.Coastal areas are more susceptible to wind speed,while high-latitude areas(including the East Antarctic Plateau and the entire area of West Antarctica)are more susceptible to visibility controlled by precipitation.Additionally,several major Antarctic ice shelf areas are experiencing severe warming,and the potential impact of ice shelf or internal ice sheet collapse should be considered when selecting an airport location.

关 键 词：可起降率 气象要素 时空变化 航空 南极洲 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467