北极海洋短期和中长期预报模型研究进展  

Numerical model studies of short-term forcasts and medium to long-term predictions for the Arctic Ocean:A review

作　　者：查宇凡 张瑜 陈长胜 徐丹亚 ZHA Yufan;ZHANG Yu;CHEN Changsheng;XU Danya(College of Oceanography and Ecological Science,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China;School for Marine Science and Technology,University of Massachusetts Dartmouth,New Bedford,Massachusetts 02744,USA)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学与生态环境学院,上海201306 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519082 [3]马萨诸塞大学达特茅斯分校海洋科学与技术学院,美国马萨诸塞州新贝德福德市02744

出　　处：《极地研究》2025年第1期118-136,共19页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42376231,42130402);国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607001);上海市自然科学基金(22ZR1427400);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队建设项目(311021009)资助。

摘　　要：北极海洋系统是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,其水文变化及海洋环流会对北极乃至全球的自然环境、生态系统等产生深远的影响。北极海洋正在发生快速变化,而数值模式在预报和预估北极海洋的未来变化方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,不同数值模式之间的设置存在分辨率、初始场条件、驱动力和大气强迫等相关因素的差异,导致各个模式之间存在较大的差异。基于数值模型间存在的上述差异性,本文系统梳理了目前国内外有关北极海洋短期和中长期预报模型的研究进展,重点探索了海水温度、盐度、海洋环流以及水位等因素的精度及其未来预估变化,在前人研究的基础上,展望了对未来数值模型在北极海洋预报和预估方面有待解决的问题。The Arctic marine system is a crucial component of Earth’s climate system,and its hydrological changes and ocean currents can have profound impacts on the natural environment and ecosystems both locally and globally.The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid changes,and numerical models play a crucial role in forecasting and projecting the future state of the Arctic Ocean.However,notable differences exist between various numerical models in terms of resolution,initial field conditions,driving forces,and atmospheric forcing,resulting in substantial disparities among such models.With consideration of the differences in the above factors among various numerical models,this paper systematically reviews the progress of research in China and internationally based on using numerical models for short-term forecasting and long-term predictions for the Arctic Ocean,focusing on the accuracy of factors such as sea temperature,salinity,ocean circulation,and sea level,together with consideration of their projected changes.Building upon existing research,this paper also anticipates unresolved issues in future application of numerical models for predictions and estimations concerning the Arctic Ocean.

关 键 词：北极地区 海洋 预报 预估 模型 

分 类 号：P731.3[天文地球—海洋科学]