技术要素耦合作用下我国退役风电设备资源化潜力研究  

The resource utilization potential of decommissioned wind power equipment under the coupling of technical elements in China

作　　者：郭慧娟 唐守娟 孔令强 郭云 刘广鑫 张力小[6] 石磊[1,2] GUO Hui-juan;TANG Shou-juan;KONG Ling-qiang;GUO Yun;LIU Guang-xin;ZHANG Li-xiao;SHI Lei(School of Resources and Environment,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutrality of Ministry of Education,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;Jiaxing Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center of Zhejiang Province,Jiaxing 314001,China;Yangtze Delta Region Institute of Tsinghua University,Jiaxing 314006,China;State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学资源与环境学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学流域碳中和教育部工程研究中心,江西南昌330031 [3]浙江财经大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [4]浙江省嘉兴生态环境监测中心,浙江嘉兴314001 [5]浙江清华长三角研究院,浙江嘉兴314006 [6]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第4期2358-2368,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFE020850002);国家自然科学基金项目(52200215,52270182);江西省社会科学基金项目(24ZXST06)。

摘　　要：基于Stella系统动力学建模平台,耦合风机单机容量、发电方式等技术要素以及使用寿命的影响,构建了我国退役风机报废量预测模型,系统分析与模拟不同情景下风机设备的报废量,并量化回收废旧风机设备资源化规模及其碳减排潜力.结果表明,(1)设计寿命情景下,我国风机安装量2006~2038年快速增长,2047年到达波谷后再次增长,风机报废规模快速上升,不同单机容量的风机报废量达峰时间随着单机容量的增大逐渐后移;(2)设计寿命情景下2060年风机及基础废弃物各组成成分产生量分别为:钢铁1367.24万t、铝19.72万t、铜76.23万t、塑料13.77万t、玻璃钢176.44万t、电子器件16.23万t、永磁体2.77万t、润滑油1.10万t、混凝土3476.36万t;(3)2025~2060年,短寿命、设计寿命、长寿命情景下报废风机材料累计闭环回收利用可分别满足总材料需求的49.5%、41.1%、32.7%,以报废风机中钢铁、铝、铜及永磁体为例,短寿命、设计寿命、长寿命情景下2025~2060年100%资源化利用累计碳减排量分别为24654.2,17594.7和12218.4万t.延长风机寿命,并根据直驱和双馈以及不同单机容量风机的报废结果建立健全风机设备回收体系,同时强化资源再生利用能力,提高资源循环利用效率,推进报废风机中钢铁等高值设备再制造,将有效降低风机产业生命周期温室气体排放,助力于我国碳达峰碳中和战略目标的实现.Based on the STELLA platform,a system dynamic model was constructed based on technology iteration,service life,and other influencing factors.This model systematically analyzed and simulated wind turbine waste generation under various scenarios,while quantifying the recycling scale of wind turbine waste and its potential carbon emission reduction effects.The results showed that:(1)Under the design lifetime scenario,the new-installed capacity of wind turbines in China were found to be increasing rapidly from 2006 to 2038,reached a trough in 2047,and then increased again.The scale of wind turbine scrapping was rising rapidly,and the peak time of wind turbines wastes with different unit capacities gradually occurred later as the unit capacity increased.(2)Under the design lifetime scenario,the amounts of waste generation components of wind turbines in 2060 were identified as follows:steel(13.67 million tons),aluminum(197200 tons),copper(762300 tons),plastic(137700 tons),fiberglass(1.7644 million tons),electronic devices(162300 tons),permanent magnets(27700 tons),lubricating oil(11000 tons),and concrete(34.76 million tons),respectively.(3)From 2025 to 2060,the cumulative closed-loop recycling of decommissioned wind turbine materials could meet 49.46%,41.13%,and 32.67%of the total material demand under the short lifetime,design lifetime,and the long lifetime scenario,respectively.The cumulative carbon emission reductions from 2025 to 2060 with 100%resource utilization of steel,aluminum,copper and permanent magnets in scrapped wind turbines under the short lifetime,design lifetime,and the long lifetime scenario were calculated as 246.54 million tons,175.95 million tons and 122.18 million tons respectively.Extending the wind turbine lifespan,establishing and improving the recycling system for wind power equipment,strengthening the resource recycling capabilities,and promoting advanced recycling technologies such as steel remanufacturing would reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively.These efforts are considered signif

关 键 词：风电 报废量预测 系统动力学模型 资源化潜力 碳减排 

分 类 号：X773[环境科学与工程—环境工程]