山区土地利用空间冲突测度及传导机制的情景分析——以云南省为例  

Scenario Analysis of Land Use Spatial Conflict and Transmission Mechanisms in Mountainours Regions:A Case Study of Yunnan Province,China

作　　者：付爱铃 李智国 FU Ailing;LI Zhiguo(School of Finance and Public Administration,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China;Key Laboratory of Yunnan Universities on Land Utilization in Highland Mountainous Areas,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学财政与公共管理学院,昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学云南省高校高原山地土地利用重点实验室,昆明650221

出　　处：《山地学报》2025年第1期59-71,共13页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41461113)。

摘　　要：山地国土空间冲突的“垂直梯度分异+多尺度耦合”特征在高原山区表现尤为显著。因其空间分布的广泛多样性和问题求解的高度复杂性,已成为制约山区省份新时代山地城镇建设的关键因素。当前研究大多聚焦于土地利用空间冲突的时空演变特征,而针对未来冲突的预测性分析相对匮乏,且研究区域多局限于经济发达的平原城市圈,对山区土地利用空间冲突的传导机制探讨不足。本研究选取典型的低纬度高原山区省份——云南省作为研究对象,综合运用GeoSOS-FLUS模型、土地利用空间冲突综合指数模型以及空间自相关方法,对云南省的土地利用空间冲突强度进行测度与预测。研究结果显示:(1)2020年,云南省的中度冲突(0.72≤CS<0.82)和严重冲突(0.82≤CS≤1)区域主要集中在滇中城市群、边境沿线的城市圈以及产业集群区。与2020年的冲突现状相比,至2030年,在设定的所有情景下,云南省超过89%的土地利用空间冲突区域将属于可控型冲突(0≤CS<0.72),且这些可控型冲突主要分布在高海拔山区;而强冲突(0.72≤CS≤1)区域则与坝区的分布高度一致。(2)山区土地利用空间冲突呈现出横向与纵向两种发展趋势。在横向上,坝区的用地压力将进一步增大;在纵向上,受空间溢出效应的影响,冲突类型的边界将逐渐向更高海拔、地形相对平缓的山区扩展。在山区土地开发利用过程中,生态约束虽能在一定程度上缓解空间冲突,但有效的解决策略还需依赖于“山-坝”协同治理的成功耦合。本研究不仅可以为深入探究高原山区土地利用空间冲突的传导机制提供理论支持,同时也可以为寻求山区特有的土地开发利用模式奠定基础。Mountain land-use spatce conflicts characterized by vertical gradient differentiation and multi-scale coupling are particularly pronounced in mountainous regions of plateaus in China.Because of the wide diversity of spatial distribution and high complexity of problem solving,the conflicts have become a key factor restricting the construction of mountain towns in mountainous provinces of China.Most of past research focused on the spatialtemporal evolution of land-use space conflicts and largely confined to economically developed urban agglomerations in plains,leaving the transmission mechanisms of land-use space conflicts underexplored in mountainous areas,moreover,relatively short of scenario analysis of future conflicts.In this study,Yunnan Province,a typical mountainous area in a low-latitude plateau,was selected as the research area.By integrating a GeoSOS-FLUS model,a comprehensive land use space conflict index model,and spatial autocorrelation methods,the intensity of land use space conflict in Yunnan Province was measured in depth and predicted for the future.(1)In 2020,there were moderate land-use space conflicts(0.72≤CS<0.82)and severe conflict(0.82≤CS≤1),mainly concentrated in urban agglomeration in central Yunnan,as well as urban circles along the border and industrial cluster areas.Compared with the conflict status quo in 2020,by 2030,under all scenarios set,more than 89%of the land use space conflict areas in Yunnan Province would be of the controllable type(0≤CS<0.72),and these controllable types of conflicts are mainly located in high-altitude mountainous areas,whereas the strong conflict(0.72≤CS≤1)areas are highly consistent with the distribution of basin areas.(2)The development of land use space conflict in mountainous areas would diverge in two directions:in the horizontal or in the vertical.In the horizontal direction,the land-use pressure in basin areas could further increase;Longitudinally,affected by spatial spillover effects,the boundaries of conflict types would gradually expan

关 键 词：土地利用空间冲突 山区 冲突求解 云南省 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]