喀斯特山区旱改水时空格局演变及影响因素——以酉阳县为例  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Dryland-to-Paddy Conversion in Karst Mountainous Areas and Influencing Factors:A Case Study of Youyang County,China

作　　者：刘洋[1] 薛秀峰 张仕超 张湘 陆张烨 LIU Yang;XUE Xiufeng;ZHANG Shichao;ZHANG Xiang;LU Zhangye(Chongqing Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Ecological Restoration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Surface Ecological Process Field Observation and Research Station,Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学三峡库区地表过程与生态修复重庆市重点实验室,重庆401331 [2]三峡库区地表生态过程重庆市野外科学观测研究站,重庆401331

出　　处：《山地学报》2025年第1期87-104,共18页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41971244);重庆市科委自然科学基金(cstc2021jcyjmsxmX0696)。

摘　　要：喀斯特山地区是典型的生态-生产复合系统脆弱区,其耕地资源面临坡耕地占比高(>35%)、地块破碎化指数达0.57、石漠化面积占比超60%等多重约束,传统“旱改水”工程实施面临特殊挑战。旱改水是破解“缺水田”结构性矛盾,提升耕地质量、增加粮食产能、完善占补平衡的重要举措。然而,既有研究主要聚焦于典型平原区,针对喀斯特山地区旱改水格局演变研究不足,对旱改水利用稳定性变化未予以充分阐述。本文以武陵山区酉阳县为典型案例,利用1995-2020年土地利用和社会经济数据,使用土地利用转移矩阵、标准差椭圆和地理探测器模型等方法,揭示山地特殊情境下旱地-水田转型的时空逻辑。结果表明:(1)酉阳县旱改水转型过程呈现“U”型阶段波动特征,受城镇化与退耕还林政策双重作用,2005年为转型强度拐点。(2)空间格局呈向心集聚特征,以东北-西南格局为主;转型活动集中于涂市镇,空间重心南移达107 m·a^(-1),未向其他乡镇扩散。(3)85%的旱地图斑保持稳定,稳定性地块存在显著地带分异,缓坡区(6°~15°)稳定性地块占比达73.98%,形成龙潭-麻旺-泔溪带状稳定区。(4)驱动机制呈现“自然禀赋-便利性”耦合特征,距道路距离与年平均气温的交互解释力最强(q=0.83),双因子增强型交互占比达86.47%。研究成果构建了喀斯特山区耕地转型理论模型,可以为破解“生态安全-粮食安全”权衡困境、建立差异化耕地保护制度提供决策支持。Karst mountainous regions are typical areas with fragile eco-production composite systems,where cultivated land resources face multiple constraints,including high proportions of sloping farmland(>35%),fragmented plots(fragmentation index=0.57),and rocky desertification coverage exceeding 60%,posing great challenges to traditional dryland-to-paddy conversion projects.Dryland-to-paddy conversion is a critical initiative to resolve the structural contradiction of paddy deficiency,improve cultivated land quality,enhance grain production capacity and optimize land-use balance.However,past studies primarily focused on typical plain regions,with limited investigation into the spatiotemporal evolution of dryland-to-paddy conversion in karst mountainous areas and insufficient exploration of utilization stability.In this study,it took Youyang County in the Wuling Mountains area as a case study.It collected land-use and socioeconomic data from 1995 to 2020 and employed land-use transition matrices,standard deviation ellipses,and geographical detector models to unravel the spatiotemporal logic of dryland-paddy transformation under karst mountainous conditions.(1)The dryland-to-paddy conversion process in Youyang exhibited U-shaped phased fluctuations,with 2005 as the turning point under dual impacts of urbanization and the Grain-for-Green Program.(2)The spatial pattern of the dryland-paddy transformation was characterized by centripetal aggregation dominated by a northeast-southwest orientation,concentrated in Tushi Town with a southward centroid migration rate of 107 m·a^(-1)and no signs of diffusion to other townships.(3)In the Youyang,85%of dryland patches remained stable,but with significant zonal differentiation.Gentle slope areas(6°-15°)accounted for the highest proportion of stable patches at 73.98%,constituting Longtan-Mawang-Ganxi belt-shaped stable zone.(4)The driving mechanism of the dryland-paddy transformation reflected“natural endowment-convenience”coupling,where road proximity and annual mean temperatur

关 键 词：旱改水 时空格局 影响因素 喀斯特山地区 酉阳县 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]