基于系统动力学的乡村电商与数字乡村协同发展策略研究——以长沙市为例  

Research on Collaborative Development Strategies Between Rural E-Commerce and Digital Rural Areas Based on System Dynamics:A Case Study of Changsha City

作　　者：刘凡敏 赵先超 王梦杰[1] LIU Fanmin;ZHAO Xianchao;WANG Mengjie(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China;Hunan University of Technology Rural Revitalization Research Institute,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学城市与环境学院,湖南株洲412007 [2]湖南工业大学乡村振兴研究院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2025年第4期74-81,共8页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

基　　金：湖南省研究生科研创新基金资助项目(LXBZZ2024318)。

摘　　要：基于系统动力学原理与方法,构建了乡村电商与数字乡村协同发展动态模型,揭示了二者间的影响反馈机制。应用长沙市2015—2023年农村经济发展统计数据,模拟了投资、市场需求、科技政策等因素的影响。结果表明:综合多因素混合策略(策略3)的促进效果最显著,其次是加强市场与科技引导策略(策略2),而政府数字化投资策略(策略1)效果最低。相比策略1的乡村电商总产值促进明显度,策略2和3分别提升了10.56%,19.93%。乡村电商与数字乡村实现高质量协同发展的关键在于政府决策,政府需找到投资策略与政策引导间的平衡点,增加乡村地区投资和补贴的同时构建全方位政策支持体系。此外,建议采取全局分阶段实施策略,以促进乡村电商和数字乡村的高质量发展。Based on the principles and methods of system dynamics,a dynamic model for the collaborative development of rural e-commerce and digital villages has thus been constructed,revealing the feedback mechanisms between the two systems.Based on the rural economic development statistical data of Changsha City from 2015 to 2023,a simulation has been made of the impacts of factors such as investment,market demand,and technology policies.The results show that the combined multi-factor mixed strategy(Strategy 3)exhibits the most significant positive effect,followed by the strategy of strengthening market and technology guidance(Strategy 2),while the government digital investment strategy(Strategy 1)is characterized with the lowest effect.Compared to strategy 1,strategies 2 and 3 have increased the promotion of the total output value of rural e-commerce by 10.56%and 19.93%,respectively.The key to achieving high-quality collaborative development between rural e-commerce and digital rural areas lies in the decision-making of the government,which needs to find a balance between investment strategies and policy guidance,increase investment and subsidies in rural areas so as to build a comprehensive policy support system.In addition,it is recommended to implement a phased overall strategy to promote the high-quality development of rural e-commerce and digital rural areas.

关 键 词：乡村电商 数字乡村 系统动力学 协同策略 长沙市 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济] F205