基于马尔科夫决策过程的星座故障卫星替换策略研究  

Research on constellation fault satellite replacement strategy based on Markov decision process

作　　者：林若禹 冯蕴雯[1] 薛小锋[1] 郑晓燕 崔帅 LIN Ruoyu;FENG Yunwen;XUE Xiaofeng;ZHENG Xiaoyan;CUI Shuai(School of Aeronautics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China;Innovation Academy for Microsatellites,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 201203,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,西安710072 [2]中国科学院微小卫星创新研究院,上海201203

出　　处：《航空工程进展》2025年第2期62-69,共8页Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering

摘　　要：随着星座的大规模化,单星重要程度降低,在制定故障卫星替换策略时,应当考虑采用多种替换方式和保留故障卫星的情况。针对这一需求,提出一种基于马尔科夫决策过程的星座轨道卫星替换策略制定方法。根据在轨工作、在轨备份和地面备份的卫星颗数,对轨道状态进行划分;在此基础上,结合故障卫星的不同替换策略及对应的订购、储存和惩罚成本,构建代表预期维护成本的回报函数模型;以最小化各决策周期的维护预期成本为目标,制定序贯的替换策略并以某星座轨道为例进行应用分析。结果表明:采用地面备份替换故障卫星时,更趋向于补充消耗的备份卫星;平均故障间隔时间越长,预期维护总成本越低,但效果逐渐减弱;惩罚成本的提高会导致替换策略固化,预期维护总成本的上升趋势会极大放缓。With the decrease of the importance of single satellite caused by the large-scale constellation,multiple re-placement methods and the retention of faulty satellites should be considered when formulating the replacement strategy of faulty satellites.In response to this requirement,a method of formulating constellation orbital satellite re-placement strategy based on Markov decision process is proposed.The orbital states are divided to the number of sat-ellites in orbit,on-orbit backup and ground backup.On this basis,a return function model representing the expected maintenance cost is constructed by combining different replacement methods of faulty satellites and corresponding or-dering,storage and penalty costs.Sequential replacement strategies are formulated with the goal of minimizing the ex-pected maintenance cost of each decision-making cycle and an application analysis is carried out taking a certain con-stellation orbit as an example.The results show that when ground backup satellites are used to replace faulty satel-lites,it tends to supplement the consumed.The longer the mean time between failures,the lower the total expected maintenance cost,but the effect is gradually weakened.The increase of penalty cost will lead to the solidification of strategies,and the upward trend of total maintenance cost is expected to be greatly slowed down.

关 键 词：卫星星座 备份策略 马尔科夫决策过程 替换方式 维护成本 

分 类 号：V467[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]