基于Kriging模型的变电站电气设备地震关联段地震响应快速预测方法  

Rapid Prediction Method of Seismic Response in Seismic Correlation Section of Electrical Equipment in Substation Based on Kriging Model

作　　者：周承伟 何畅 何紫薇 ZHOU Chengwei;HE Chang;HE Ziwei(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;National Engineering Research Center for High-speed Railway Construction Technology,Changsha 410075,China;Chishou Township People’sGovernment,Songyang County,Zhejiang Lishui 323406,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,长沙410075 [2]高速铁路建造技术国家工程研究中心,长沙410075 [3]松阳县赤寿乡人民政府,浙江丽水323406

出　　处：《高压电器》2025年第4期12-20,29,共10页High Voltage Apparatus

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52008406);湖南省自然科学基金(2025JJ90154)。

摘　　要：由于变电站软导线为强非线性结构,变电站电气设备地震关联段地震响应分析效率低。为提高变电站电气设备关联段分析效率,文中基于电气设备地震关联段数值分析模型,搭建了地震关联段地震响应均值、方差等统计值预测Kriging模型。在此基础上,开展了地震关联段地震响应结果正态性检验,提出了基于半方差分析的Kriging相关函数选取方法,并开展了不同软导线垂跨比的电气设备地震关联段地震响应统计值预测。研究结果表明,使用高斯模型作为Kriging模型的相关函数可较好的预测关联段地震响应,Kriging模型可较好地预测具有强烈非线性的软导线—电气设备地震关联段地震响应,可大幅提升变电站电气回路地震响应分析效率,降低分析成本。The seismic response analysis efficiency of seismic correlation section of electrical equipment of substa-tion is low due to nonlinear structure of flexible structure of substation.In order to improve the correlation analysis ef-ficiency of electrical equipment of substation,a Kriging model for predicting the mean value and variance of seismic response of seismic correlation section based on the numerical analysis model of electrical equipment seismic correla-tion section is set up.On this basis,the normality test of the seismic response results of the seismic correlation sec-tion is performed,the selection method of Kriging correlation function based on semi-variance analysis is proposed,and the statistical value prediction of the seismic response of the seismic correlation section of electrical equipment with different vertical span ratio of flexible wires is developed.The study results show that using Gaussian model as the correlation function of Kriging model can better predict the seismic response of the correlated section,and Krig-ing model can better predict the seismic response of the flexible wire-electrical equipment seismic correlation section with strong nonlinearity,which can greatly improve the seismic response analysis efficiency of electrical circuit of substation and reduce the analysis cost.

关 键 词：电气设备 地震关联段 KRIGING模型 相关函数 地震响应统计值 

分 类 号：TM63[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]