China Can Achieve Carbon Neutrality in Line with the Paris Agreement's 2℃Target:Navigating Global Emissions Scenarios,Warming Levels,and Extreme Event Projections  

作　　者：Xiaoye Zhang Junting Zhong Xiliang Zhang Da Zhang Changhong Miao Deying Wang Lifeng Guo 

机构地区：[1]Henan University and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Joint Laboratory for Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality,Zhengzhou 450000,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [3]Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100086,China

出　　处：《Engineering》2025年第1期207-214,共8页工程(英文)

基　　金：supported by the top-level design of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Major Project“Realization of optimal carbon neutral pathway and coupling of multi-scale interaction patterns of natural-social systems in China”(42341202);the Basic Scientific Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2021Z014)。

摘　　要：This paper proposes that China,under the challenge of balancing its development and security,can aim for the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to no more than 2℃by actively seeking carbonpeak and carbon-neutrality pathways that align with China's national conditions,rather than following the idealized path toward the 1.5℃target by initially relying on extensive negative-emission technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage(DACCS).This work suggests that pursuing a 1.5℃target is increasingly less feasible for China,as it would potentially incur 3–4 times the cost of pursuing the 2℃target.With China being likely to achieve a peak in its emissions around 2028,at about 12.8 billion tonnes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),and become carbon neutral,projected global warming levels may be less severe after the 2050s than previously estimated.This could reduce the risk potential of climate tipping points and extreme events,especially considering that the other two major carbon emitters in the world(Europe and North America)have already passed their carbon peaks.While natural carbon sinks will contribute to China's carbon neutrality efforts,they are not expected to be decisive in the transition stages.This research also addresses the growing focus on climate overshoot,tipping points,extreme events,loss and damage,and methane reductions in international climate cooperation,emphasizing the need to balance these issues with China's development,security,and fairness considerations.China's pursuit of carbon neutrality will have significant implications for global emissions scenarios,warming levels,and extreme event projections,as well as for climate change hotspots of international concern,such as climate tipping points,the climate crisis,and the notion that the world has moved from a warming to a boiling era.Possible research recommendations for global emissions scenarios based on China's 2℃target pathway are also summarized.

关 键 词：Climate change 2℃target Carbon neutrality Emission scenarios Balanced mitigation 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]