面向低空风切变的安全风险协同控制研究  

Research on Collaborative Control of Safety Related to Wind Shear

作　　者：张雯璇 王华伟[1] ZHANG Wen-xuan;WANG Hua-wei(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2025年第2期71-76,共6页Aeronautical Computing Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(72271123);中央高校基本科研业务费项目资助(No.NP2024116)。

摘　　要：低空风切变是一种难以预测、发作迅速、危害较大的特殊天气现象,是民航安全管理中常见的不可控因素,给风险控制带来了巨大挑战。遭遇低空风切变时通过多主体协同才能有效化解风险。建立了基于TG-LDA主题识别模型和系统动力学仿真的多主体协同风险控制模型。首先,使用TG-LDA模型挖掘低空风切变相关的民航不安全事件报告,计算各影响因素对的权重,构建低空风切变下机组和空管3个子系统的因果关系图和流图进行仿真。而后基于仿真结果识别分析其中的关键安全因素,为民航多主体协同控制风险提供决策参考。Low-altitude windshear is a special weather phenomenon that is difficult to predict,rapid onset,and hazardous,and is a common uncontrollable factor in civil aviation safety management,which brings great challenges to risk control.When encountering low-level windshear,the risk can only be effectively resolved through multi-subject collaboration,and this paper establishes a multi-subject collaborative risk control model based on the TG-LDA subject identification model and system dynamics simulation.Firstly,the TG-LDA model is used to mine the reports of civil aviation unsafe events related to low-altitude windshear,calculate the weights of each pair of influencing factors,and construct the causality diagrams and flow diagrams of the three sub-systems of aircrews and air traffic control under low-altitude windshear for simulation.Based on the simulation results,the key safety factors are identified and analysed to provide a decision-making reference for the multi-principal cooperative risk control of civil aviation.

关 键 词：民航安全 低空风切变 风险控制 系统动力学 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]