施工火灾次生灾害链复杂网络建模与应急断链策略研究  

Research on Complex Network Modeling and Emergency Chain Disruption Strategies for Secondary Disaster Chains in Construction Fires

作　　者：汤嘉艺 曾晖[1] 郑启年 TANG Jia-yi;ZENG Hui;ZHENG Qi-nan(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuyi University,Jiangmen 529020,China;General Office of Guangdong Jinhuihua Group Co.,Ltd.,Jiangmen 529020,China)

机构地区：[1]五邑大学土木建筑学院,江门529020 [2]广东金辉华集团有限公司总工室,江门529020

出　　处：《价值工程》2025年第11期62-65,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：施工火灾具有高风险和频繁发生的特点,其成因及演化过程复杂。掌握施工火灾次生衍生灾害的链式发展机理,对于阻断灾害链传导尤为重要。本文基于灾害链理论,分析近十年102起施工火灾事故的致灾因子、承灾体与孕灾环境,通过条件概率与案例统计频数确定事件间因果权重,构建施工火灾灾害链复杂网络,确保边权重客观反映真实风险水平。通过计算出入度、中心性与边脆弱性识别网络关键节点与脆弱边,并结合应急4R理论提出断链措施,以遏制次生衍生事件的进一步发展。Construction fires are characterized by high risk and frequent occurrence,with complex causes and evolution processes.Understanding the chain development mechanism of secondary and derivative disasters in construction fires is crucial for disrupting the transmission of disaster chains.Based on disaster chain theory,this paper analyzes disaster factors,vulnerable bodies,and disaster-prone environments of 102 construction fire accidents over the past decade.The internal development logic of high-frequency secondary events is investigated by conditional probability and case statistics to determine causal weights between events.A complex network of construction fire disaster chains is constructed,ensuring edge weights objectively reflect real risk levels.Key nodes and vulnerable edges are identified through node degree,centrality,and edge vulnerability calculations.Corresponding disruption measures based on the 4R emergency theory are proposed to prevent the further development of secondary disasters.

关 键 词：施工火灾 灾害链 复杂网络 应急管理 

分 类 号：TU998.1[建筑科学—市政工程]