大国战略互动下印度洋地区秩序变迁:现状、特征与趋势  

The Transformation of Indian Ocean Regional Order:Current Status,Characteristics,and Trends

作　　者：李红梅 Li Hongmei

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院国际战略与安全研究所

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2025年第2期20-46,160,161,共29页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“印度外交战略转型及对中国的影响研究”(项目批准号:20CGJ007)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前,全球秩序处于深度转型,地区秩序面临新一轮重构。本文研究发现,在大国战略互动背景下,印度洋地区秩序经历了从单极霸权主导向权力多极化方向转变,印度对区域内机制的主导地位上升。美国一方面承认印度的地区领导角色,另一方面调整对印度洋地区岛国的接触战略。法澳日等国积极对美进行“战略贴靠”。印度洋呈现大国地缘政治竞争复兴与“阵营化”发展的特征。面对地区问题,地区治理机制重叠且存在治理赤字。技术民族主义成为该区域秩序的一个新特征,并对逆全球化背景下快速发展的区域主义构成挑战。未来针对印度洋地区的岛国竞争可能加剧,地缘政治竞争将以其他形式体现,人工智能未来可能成为驱动新一轮地区秩序变革的关键因素,对国家间权力关系、社会生活产生颠覆性影响。本文认为,中国要坚持战略主动性,发挥治理优势,同时重视人工智能对地区秩序变革的意义。The current global order is undergoing profound transformation,with regional orders facing a new phase of restructuring.This study reveals that against the backdrop of great-power strategic interactions,the Indian Ocean regional order has evolved from unipolar hegemonic dominance to power multi-polarization,accompanied by India's growing institutional dominance within the region.While the U.S.acknowledges India's leading role,it has simultaneously re-calibrated its engagement strategy toward Indian Ocean island states.Countries such as France,Australia,and Japan are actively pursuing“strategic alignment”with the U.S.The Indian Ocean now exhibits revived geopolitical competition among major powers and characteristics of“bloc-based alignment.”Regional governance mechanisms remain fragmented and overlapping,exacerbating governance deficits in addressing local challenges.Techno-nationalism has emerged as a novel feature of regional order,posing challenges to the rapid development of regionalism amid anti-globalization.Future competition over Indian Ocean island states may intensify,geopolitical rivalries may manifest in new forms,and artificial intelligence could emerge as a pivotal driver of the next wave of regional order transformation,with disruptive impacts on interstate power dynamics and societal structures.This paper argues that China should maintain strategic initiative,leverage its governance strengths,and prioritize the implications of artificial intelligence for reshaping the regional order.

关 键 词：大国战略 印度洋 地区秩序 多极化 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]