莫迪政府上台以来印度的南海政策解析——以中印之间的海陆复合竞争为视角  

India's South China Sea Policy Since the Modi Government Assumed Office——From the Perspective of Land-Sea Composite Competition between China and India

作　　者：王传剑[1] 王颖颖 Wang Chuanjian;Wang Yingying

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学政治与行政学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2025年第2期47-68,161,共23页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“域外大国介入南海问题的态势、影响和对策研究”(项目批准号:23AGJ004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：莫迪政府上台以来,印度的南海政策经历了一个逐步演化的过程。这一过程与中印之间的边界争端和安全互动存在密切的联动关系,需要放在海陆复合竞争的大背景下进行系统解读。莫迪政府介入南海有着明确的政策意图,包括获取南海油气资源、维护贸易航线通畅、追求大国理想目标、提升国际影响能力、缓解边界安全压力、统筹海陆复合竞争等,必然会对该地区安全乃至中印关系造成很大影响。不过,在具体的政策实施过程中,又不可避免地会受到域外大国身份、相对实力差距和印美战略分歧等多种因素的影响和制约,这在根本上决定了其政策变化的幅度和限度。鉴于印度更多是将其南海政策视为中印边界争端和安全互动的“策略性牵制因素”,对于中国来说,需要将印度与美日等国区别开来,在海陆复合竞争的视野之下,从中印关系的全局出发,充分考虑其南海政策的特点,采取具有针对性的因应之策。Since the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)led by Narendra Modi assumed power,India's policy regarding the South China Sea has experienced a gradual evolution.This transformation is closely intertwined with the border disputes and security interactions between China and India,necessitating a systematic interpretation within the framework of land-sea composite competition.The Modi government's engagement in the South China Sea reflects clear policy objectives,including securing oil and gas resources in the region,ensuring unimpeded trade routes,pursuing aspirations befitting a major power,enhancing international influence,alleviating border security pressures,and coordinating land-sea competitive dynamics.These factors are poised to significantly impact regional security as well as Sino-Indian relations.However,during the implementation of specific policies,various constraints arise from factors such as India's status as an extraterritorial power,disparities in relative strength between China and India,and strategic divergences between India and the U.S..These elements fundamentally shape both the magnitude and scope of policy adjustments.Given that India perceives its South China Sea policy as a“tactical restraint factor”concerning Sino-Indian border disputes and security interactions,it is essential for China to differentiate India from other nations such as the U.S.and Japan.From the perspective of land-sea composite competition—and considering the broader context of Sino-Indian relations—it is crucial to thoroughly assess India's unique characteristics regarding its South China Sea policy while adopting targeted response measures accordingly.

关 键 词：印度 南海 海陆复合竞争 中印关系 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]