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作 者:王雨薇 任禹丞 郑杨 胡涵天 吴含青 刘京易 Wang Yuwei;Ren Yucheng;Zheng Yang;Hu Hantian;Wu Hanqing;Liu Jingyi(Zhenjiang Power Supply Branch,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Zhenjiang 212002,China;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)
机构地区:[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司镇江供电分公司,江苏镇江212002 [2]国网江苏省电力有限公司,江苏南京210000 [3]东南大学电气工程学院,江苏南京210096
出 处:《能源与环保》2025年第3期205-211,共7页CHINA ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
基 金:国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2023176)。
摘 要:随着全球气候变化和能源资源的日益紧张,工业园区能耗的管理和优化变得尤为重要。在工业园区能耗中,空调系统所占比例巨大,对其能耗进行准确预测和有效控制具有重要意义。为此,提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络模型的空调能耗预测方法,用于实现工业园区中使用不同规则划分的空调节能潜力测算。首先,通过斯皮尔曼相关系数筛选合适的空调能耗指标作为预测模型的输入参数;然后,采用神经网络模型来进行预测,空调的能耗指标包括室内环境参数、室外环境参数、设备运行参数、空调历史能耗数据4部分;最后,使用一个算例验证了所提出的空调能耗预测方法的预测性能。结果表明,该方法不仅对空调系统的长期能耗进行了考虑,而且能够预测其在若干个短期控制步长的能耗,来实现能耗的实时预测与控制。With global climate change and the increasing scarcity of energy resources,the management and optimization of energy consumption in industrial parks have become particularly important.In the energy consumption of industrial parks,air conditioning systems account for a huge proportion,so accurate prediction and effective control of their energy consumption are of great significance.Therefore,a method for air conditioning energy consumption prediction method based on long short-term memory neural network models was proposed,which was used to calculate the energy-saving potential of air conditioning in industrial parks using different rule divisions.Firstly,suitable air conditioning energy consumption indicators were selected through Spearman correlation coefficient as input parameters for the prediction model,and then a neural network model was used for prediction.The energy consumption indicators of air conditioning include four parts:indoor environmental parameters,outdoor environmental parameters,equipment operating parameters,and historical energy consumption data of air conditioning.Finally,a numerical example was used to verify the predictive performance of the proposed air conditioning energy consumption prediction method.The results showed that the method not only considers the long-term energy consumption of the air conditioning system,but also can predict its energy consumption in several short-term control steps,achieving real-time prediction and control of energy consumption.
关 键 词:工业园区空调 能源消耗预测 相关性分析 长短时记忆神经网络
分 类 号:V351.3[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]
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