平原及低矮丘陵地区风电项目风险管理研究  

Research on Risk Management of Wind Power Projects in Plains and Low Hilly Areas

作　　者：徐晶 李军祥[1,3] 王昕[1] Jing Xu;Junxiang Li;Xin Wang(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai;Huaneng Huangtai Power Station,Jinan Shandong;School of Intelligent Emergency Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海 [2]华能济南黄台发电有限公司,山东济南 [3]上海理工大学智慧应急管理学院,上海

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2025年第1期1031-1037,共7页Modeling and Simulation

基　　金：教育部产学合作协同育人项目(220501791121846);上海理工大学大学生创新项目(XJ2024137)。

摘　　要：随着可持续发展的不断推进,风力发电成为我国发电领域的主流方式之一。结合实际情况,利用定性、定量结合的方法从风险识别、风险评价、风险应对三方面相关问题进行着手,对平原及低矮丘陵地区风力发电项目的风险影响因素进行了分析研究。通过文献分析法、SWOT分析法、专家访谈法确定了风险因素清单,在确定风险清单后,通过层次分析法确定了二级风险因素的权重,利用模糊综合评价法确认一级风险因素等级,并对平原及低矮丘陵地区此类项目整体风险等级进行评定。最终得出此类风电项目风险评估的结果。最后分析得出各风险应对策略,为平原及低矮丘陵地区风电项目建设管理工作提供有效的实践指导意义。With the continuous advancement of sustainable development,wind power has become one of the mainstream methods in China’s power generation field.Combining actual conditions,a qualitative and quantitative approach was used to analyze and study the risk impact factors of wind power projects in plain and low hill areas from the aspects of risk identification,risk evaluation,and risk response.Through literature analysis,SWOT analysis,and expert interviews,a list of risk factors was determined.After establishing the risk list,the weights of secondary risk factors were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and the grades of primary risk factors were confirmed using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method.The overall risk level of such wind power projects in plain and low hill areas was assessed.The results of the risk assessment of these wind power projects were ultimately obtained.Finally,risk response strategies were analyzed to provide effective practical guidance for the construction management of wind power projects in plain and low hill areas.

关 键 词：风力发电 风险评价 风险管理 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]