M高速公路G标段项目施工成本管理的三阶段优化研究  

Study on the Three-Stage Optimization of Cost Management during the Construction Phase of Section G Project in Expressway M

作　　者：赵文倩 姚佼[1] Wenqian Zhao;Jiao Yao(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2025年第1期151-159,共9页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：本文通过分析高速公路施工阶段成本管理优化前后的差异,体现出闭环施工成本管理优化策略的优势,并在分析M高速公路G标段项目施工阶段成本计划、成本控制、成本分析三阶段存在问题的基础上,构建全闭环施工成本管理优化策略。具体而言,成本计划阶段,结合目标成本法进行CBS分解,多角度分解项目成本目标;成本控制阶段,通过蒙特卡洛模拟形成项目风险基线图以及项目成本期望偏差基线,进而运用融合风险指标的改进挣值法,计算形成新的成本控制指标变化趋势,并结合改进挣值新判断标准,分析项目成本超支风险;成本分析阶段,结合ABC分析法分类分级制定成本纠偏措施。This paper reflects the advantages of closed-loop construction cost management optimization strategy by analyzing the difference between before and after the optimization of cost management in the construction phase of highway,and constructs a full closed-loop construction cost management optimization strategy by relying on the cost management problems existing in the cost planning,cost control and cost analysis links in the construction phase of the M highway G bidding section project.The optimization was carried out in three steps.In the first step,the cost planning link was combined with the target cost method to carry out CBS decomposition and decomposed the project cost target from multiple angles.In the second step,the cost control link formed the project risk baseline diagram and the project cost expectation deviation baseline through Monte Carlo simulation,and then applied the improved Earned Value(EV)method that integrated the risk indicators,calculated and formed the trend of the new cost control indicators,and analyzed the risk of cost overrun of the project by combining with the improved EV new judgement standard.The third step was to formulate corrective measures by classifying and grading with the ABC analysis method in the cost analysis process.

关 键 词：高速公路施工 闭环施工成本优化 蒙特卡洛模拟 改进挣值法 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]