基于Copula函数的长江下游感潮河段沿程洪潮遭遇分析  

Analysis of Flood and Tide Encounter Combination Along the Tidal Reach of the Lower Yangtze River Based on Copula Function

作　　者：仲跻文 于慧 袁震洲 卞佳琪 赵明 韦立新 肖仲凯 巫昕煜 ZHONG Ji-wen;YU Hui;YUAN Zhen-zhou;BIAN Jia-qi;ZHAO Ming;WEI Li-xin;XIAO Zhong-kai;WU Xin-yu(Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Hydrology&Water Resources Survey Bureau for Yangtze Backward River,Nanjing 210011,Jiangsu Province,China;Zhejiang Huadong Mapping and Engineering Safety Technology Co.,Ltd,Hangzhou 310014,Zhejiang Province,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局长江下游水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210011 [2]浙江华东测绘与工程安全技术有限公司,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第4期157-163,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：长江下游感潮河段受到上游来水和海洋潮汐的共同影响,使得该河段的防洪形势复杂严峻,因此,辨识长江下游径流与潮汐的遭遇风险对于区域防洪治涝减灾具有实际意义。研究以长江下游河段为研究区域,以大通水文站最大流量以及南京潮位站、镇江潮位站、江阴潮位站最高潮位为数据基础,分析长江下游河段沿程洪潮遭遇的概率分布。通过Copula函数分别构建大通水文站年最大流量与南京潮位站、镇江潮位站、江阴潮位站年最高潮位的联合分布,比较分析Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula和Frank Copula函数的拟合优度,最终选定以Clayton Copula函数构建长江下游的洪潮联合分布,分析了各站点之间的同现风险率、条件风险率和组合风险率,进一步探究洪潮风险的变化规律。通过对上下游洪潮遭遇风险的比较,发现各潮位站年最高潮位的出现受到大通站年最大流量的影响,大通站年最大流量越大,下游各潮位站出现超某一高潮位的可能性越大。此外,从长江下游段沿程分析结果来看,距离入海口越近的站点,受到上游大通站最大流量的影响越小,即受到上游洪水的影响越小,因此遭遇极端洪潮组合事件的概率越低。结果表明,在长江下游河段防洪应重点考虑极端洪潮组合事件的风险与防护,不同站点受到洪潮风险各不相同,不同区域应针对不同风险制定相应的风险分析与防治措施。The tidal river section of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is jointly affected by the upstream water and the ocean tide,which made the flood prevention situation of the river section complex and severe.Therefore,identifying the encounter risk of runoff and tide of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is of practical significance for regional flood prevention.This study takes the downstream section of the Yangtze River as the study area,and uses the maximum flow from Datong hydrological station and the highest tidal level from Nanjing,Zhenjiang and Jiangyin Tide station as the data basis to explore the probability distribution of flood and tide encounter along the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.We construct the joint distribution of the largest traffic of the Datong Hydrological Station with the largest annual flow of Nanjing Tide Station,Zhenjiang Tide Station,and Jiangyin Tide Station through the COPULA function.Comparing the fitness of Gumbel Copula,Clayton Copula and Frank Copula,we finally chose Clayton Copula to establish the joint distribution of flood and tide combination in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The co-occurrence risk rate,conditional risk rate,and combined risk rate of each site are analyzed to further explore the laws of various risks.By comparing the risks of the upstream and downstream floods,it is found that the emergence of the highest tide level of each tide station is affected by the largest flow of the annual flow of Datong Station.The greater the annual maximum flow of Datong station,the greater the possibility of exceeding a certain high tide level at each downstream tidal station.Moreover,it is found that the closer the station is to the estuary,the less it is affected by the maximum flow of the upstream Datong station,that is,the less it is affected by the upstream flood,so the probability of encountering extreme flood and tide combination events is lower.The results show that the risk and protection of extreme flood and tide combination events should be consider

关 键 词：COPULA函数 洪潮遭遇 组合风险 长江下游感潮河段 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]