黄河上中下游水沙变化特征及其驱动因素对比分析  

Comparative Analysis of the Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water and Sediment Variation in the Upper-middle-lower of Yellow River

作　　者：左超 常兴 辛朋磊[3] 张彦[4] ZUO Chao;CHANG Xing;XIN Peng-lei;ZHANG Yan(Hydrological Bureau of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan Province,China;Henan Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan Province,China;Nantong Branch Bureau,Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nantong 226006,Jiangsu Province,China;Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450000 [2]黄河水利委员会河南水文水资源局,河南郑州450000 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南通分局,江苏南通226006 [4]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453002

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第4期184-191,200,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：中国农业科学院重大科技任务和基本科研业务费项目(CAAS-ZDRW202418);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(IFI2023-16)。

摘　　要：基于2002-2022年黄河流域上中下游3个典型水文站(兰州、龙门和利津)的降水量、径流量和输沙量数据,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Pettitt突变检验法、水沙关系曲线以及双累积曲线分析了其水沙变化特征及其驱动因素,并计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流量和输沙量变化的贡献率。结果表明:兰州水文站(汛期和非汛期)和利津水文站(非汛期)的径流量具有显著增加趋势且变化率分别为4.83、2.47和3.37亿m^(3)/a,龙门水文站输沙量在非汛期具有显著的减小趋势且变化率为-128.01万t/a;各水文站降水量、径流量和输沙量的突变点具有一定的差异性,如汛期时兰州水文站、龙门水文站和利津水文站输沙量的突变点分别为2008年、2009年和2018年;兰州水文站(非汛期)和利津水文站(汛期和非汛期)的水沙关系拟合相对较好,其中龙门水文站(汛期)和利津水文站(非汛期)河道受径流侵蚀作用而使输沙量较大,兰州水文站(非汛期)和利津水文站(汛期)受到河道水流侵蚀能力最强;在非汛期人类活动对龙门水文站(径流量)和利津水文站(输沙量)的贡献率较大分别为94.69%和94.50%,降水对兰州水文站和龙门水文站输沙量的贡献率较大分别为99.54%和99.03%。研究成果可为黄河流域上中下游的水沙合理调控及生态环境高质量可持续发展提供一定的科学基础。Based on the precipitation,runoff and sediment transport data of three typical hydrological stations(Lanzhou,Longmen and Lijin)in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 2002 to 2022,the characteristics of water-sediment change and its driving factors were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall trend test,Pettitt mutation test,water-sediment relationship curve and double accumulation curve,and the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the changes of runoff and sediment discharge were calculated.The results show that the runoff of Lanzhou(flood season and non-flood season)and Lijin(non-flood season)has a significant increasing trend and the change rates are 483,247 and 337 million m^(3)/a,respectively;the sediment transport of Longmen has a significant decreasing trend and the change rate is -1.2801 million t/a in the non-flood season.The abrupt change points of precipitation,runoff and sediment transport at each hydrological station are different to some extent.For example,the abrupt change points of sediment transport at Lanzhou,Longmen and Lijin during the flood season are 2008,2009 and 2018,respectively.The water-sediment relationship fitting of Lanzhou(non-flood season)and Lijin(flood season and non-flood season)is relatively good,Longmen(flood season)and Lijin(non-flood season)have the largest sediment transport capacity under the action of runoff erosion,and Lanzhou(non-flood season)and Lijin(flood season)have the strongest erosion capacity.In the non-flood season,the contribution rates of human activities to Longmen(runoff)and Lijin(sediment transport)are relatively large,at 94.69% and 94.50%,respectively,and the contribution rates of precipitation to Lanzhou and Longmen are relatively large,at 99.54% and 99.03%,respectively.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the rational control of water and sediment and the high-quality sustainable development of ecological environment in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin.

关 键 词：黄河流域 水沙变化 驱动因素 趋势和突变分析 贡献率 

分 类 号：TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]