人口老龄化背景下粮食增产之谜——基于农业社会化服务视角  

Mystery of Food Production Increase in the Context of Population Aging—Based on the Perspective of Agricultural Socialized Services

作　　者：陈静[1] Chen Jing(College of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,Hubei)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《农业展望》2025年第1期84-93,共10页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“农业产业化联合体运行成效与差异化提升策略研究”(21CJY047);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“乡村振兴战略驱动下农地流转价格偏离的形成机理与纠偏机理研究”(19YJCZH190)。

摘　　要：粮食安全是国家和社会发展的基础,也是人民幸福生活的保障。本研究基于2011—2021年中国省级面板数据,采用熵值法测算农业社会化服务,并构建双向固定效应模型,探究人口老龄化对粮食生产的影响。研究发现:人口老龄化对粮食生产带来显著的负向影响,农业社会化服务对粮食生产具有正向调节效应,该结果经过多种稳健性检验依旧成立。农业社会化服务通过农药、灌溉服务、农机服务和化肥的投入对粮食生产产生显著的正向调节效应。此外,人口老龄化对粮食生产的影响存在显著的异质性,人口老龄化对粮食生产的负面影响在东部地区和主销区更为明显,对小麦和稻谷的负效应更为突出;农业社会化服务也存在着显著的异质性,农业社会化服务在东部地区的调节效应较为明显,对小麦的调节效应更为显著。据此,建议提高老龄农业劳动者素质、加快农业社会化服务的进程、鼓励青壮年劳动力返乡创业,以应对劳动力老龄化对粮食生产产生的不利影响。Food security is the foundation of national and social development and the guarantee of people's well-being.Based on 2011-2021 Chinese provincial panel data,this paper used the Entropy method to measure agricultural socialization services and constructed a two-way fixed effects model to investigate the impact of population aging on food production.The study found that population aging has a significant negative impact on food production,and agricultural socialization services have a positive moderating effect on food production,a result that remains valid after various robustness tests.Agricultural socialization services have a significant positive moderating effect on food production through inputs of pesticides,irrigation services,agricultural machinery services and fertilizers.In addition,there is significant heterogeneity in the impact of population aging on food production,and the negative impact of population aging on food production is more obvious in the eastern region and the main marketing area,and the negative effect on wheat and rice is more prominent;there is also significant heterogeneity in the agricultural socialization services,and the moderating effect of the agricultural socialization services is more obvious in the eastern region,and the moderating effect on wheat is more significant.Accordingly,it is recommended to improve the quality of aging agricultural workers,accelerate the process of agricultural socialization services,and encourage young and strong laborers to return to their hometowns to start their own businesses,in order to cope with the negative impact of the aging labor force on food production.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 粮食生产 熵值法 固定效应 农业社会化服务 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]