释放农村消费潜力的思路和对策  

Ideas and Policies to Release Rural Consumption Potential

作　　者：王秀杰[1] 余家林 WANG Xiu-jie;YU Jia-lin(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京市100732

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2025年第4期3-14,共12页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“农民获得更多土地财产权益的体制机制创新研究”(17ZDA075);中国社会科学院农村发展研究所课题“建立扩大农村消费长效机制的对策研究”(NFS2024SJ010)。

摘　　要：扩大农村消费是扩大内需、释放经济发展动能的战略重点。通过构建我国农村消费潜力评价指标体系,分析2013—2022年我国农村消费潜力指数变化趋势,估算四种不同增长场景下未来农村消费潜力。结果显示:从农村消费潜力现状和变化趋势看,农村消费潜力在波动中不断提高,农村消费能力、消费现状和消费环境三个维度指数呈现“三量齐增”的态势,但在2019年后呈现分化特征;农村消费潜力明显,尤其服务性消费有望成为农村消费扩大的主动力。目前影响农村消费潜力释放的因素仍然存在,包括农村人口减少且老龄化问题加剧、农民收入低且增速趋缓、农村基础设施建设仍然薄弱、农村地区商业体系相对落后、有效供给不足、政策和制度约束等。基于有效市场与有为政府相结合的原则,提出释放农村消费潜力的具体路径:一是从经营性收入、工资性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入多渠道促进农民增收,让农民能消费。二是健全养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险、重大疾病、意外伤害保险等多类型的社会保障体系,并覆盖全部农村居民,增强农民消费意愿,让农民敢消费。三是改善消费环境,完善农村消费基础设施,完善以县城为中心、乡镇为重点、村为基础的农村商业体系,加强市场监管,以需求为导向提升农村商品和服务的供给质量,使农民愿消费。四是破除限制农村消费的制度性障碍,建立释放农村消费潜力的长效机制。Expanding rural consumption is a strategic focus for boosting domestic demand and unleashing economic growth potential.The authors construct an evaluation index system for rural consumption potential in China,analyze the trend of the rural consumption potential index from 2013 to 2022,and estimate future rural consumption potential under four different growth scenarios.It is found that:from the current state and trends of rural consumption potential,it is evident that rural consumption potential has increased amidst fluctuations,and indices for rural consumption capacity,current consumption levels,and consumption environment all demonstrate simultaneous growth across these dimensions,though they exhibited differentiation after 2019;and rural consumption potential is substantial,with service consumption poised to become the primary driver of rural consumption expansion.At present,several factors continue to hinder the release of rural consumption potential,including the declining and aging rural population,low farmer incomes with slowing growth rates,weak rural infrastructure,relatively underdeveloped commercial system in rural areas,insufficient effective supply,and constraints from policies and institutional barriers.Based on the principle of integrating an effective market with an enabling government,specific pathways to unleash rural consumption potential are proposed:first,increasing farmers'incomes through multiple channels,including operational income,wage income,property income,and transfer income,enabling farmers to afford consumption;second,establishing a comprehensive social security system covering all rural residents,including pensions,health insurance,unemployment insurance,critical illness insurance,and accident insurance,to boost farmers'willingness to consume by ensuring their financial security;third,improving the rural consumption environment by enhancing consumption infrastructure,developing a commercial system centered on county-level hubs,focusing on townships,and strengthening village-level

关 键 词：农村消费 潜力释放 农民收入 农民社会保障 服务性消费 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]