“短-中-长”期嵌套实时灌溉预报模型研究及其应用  

Development and Application of“Short-Medium-Long”Periods Coupled Real-time Irrigation Forecasting Model

作　　者：崔璨 董增川[1] 彭宇晴 王佳晟 韩亚雷 张天衍 黄跃群 CUI Can;DONG Zeng-chuan;PENG Yu-qing;WANG Jia-sheng;HAN Ya-lei;ZHANG Tian-yan;HUANG Yue-qun(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Hunan Provincial Water Resources Development&Investment CO.,LTD,Changsha 410007,Hunan Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]湖南省水利发展投资有限公司,湖南长沙410007 [3]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100048

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第4期16-23,共8页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：犬木塘水库工程科技创新项目(QMT-KY/02-2022);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2021000-05)。

摘　　要：为了提高灌区水资源的利用效率,提出了一种以TIGGE数值天气预报和公共天气预报驱动实时灌溉预报的理论框架,该框架采用Hargreaves-Samani公式结合遗传算法率定地区差异化参数,开展了参考作物腾发量预测以及预见期分别为3、7和15 d的短期、中期、长期实时灌溉预报。以衡邵干旱走廊的犬木塘灌区为实施案例,结果表明:①数值天气预报产品的精度尚可,能够有效延长灌溉预报的预见期。②通过对HS公式中关键参数的优化调整,ET_(0)预报的准确性得以提高,相关系数可达到0.9。③分析了不同预见期下稻田与旱作物的节水效果,相较于短中期预报,长期预报采取多次少量的灌溉策略,在降低灌后遇雨风险的同时显著减少了灌水浪费。④制定了逐日滚动的“短(1~3 d)-中(4~7 d)-长(8~15 d)”期嵌套式灌溉策略,可为灌区水资源调度及规划管理提供决策依据。To enhance the efficiency of water resources utilization in irrigation districts,this study proposed a theoretical framework driven by TIGGE numerical weather forecasts and public weather predictions.The Hargreaves-Samani equation was adopted combined with genetic algorithm to rate the regional parameters.Then conducting reference crop evapotranspiration predicting and real-time irrigation forecasting with forecast periods of 3 days,7 days,and 15 days for short-term,medium-term,and long-term periods,respectively.Using the Qumutang Irrigation District in the“Hengyang-Shaoyang”Dry Corridor as a case study,the results show that:①The accuracy of numerical weather forecasts effectively extends the irrigation forecast period.②By optimizing the key parameters in the HS equation,the accuracy of ET_(0) can be improved with the correlation coefficient reached by 0.9.③Analysis of water-saving effects on paddy fields and dry crops under varying forecast periods reveals that long-term forecasts,compared to short-and medium-term forecasts,significantly reduce water wastage.Additionally,long-term forecasts mitigate risks of post-irrigation precipitation through small-volume,high-frequency irrigation events.④A daily rolling“Short(1~3 days)–Medium(4~7 days)–Long(8~15 days)”integrated water-saving irrigation strategy has been formulated,providing decision-making support for water resource regulation,planning and management in irrigation districts.

关 键 词：参考作物腾发量 灌溉预报 数值天气预报 公共天气预报 Hargreaves-Samani公式 预见期 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] S274.1[农业科学—农业水土工程]