基于水资源承载力的新疆平原绿洲2000-2020年发展与稳定性分析  

Study on Oasis Suitable Scale from 2000 to 2020 Based Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xinjiang

作　　者：魏光辉[1,2] 马亮[1] 刘锋[1] WEI Guang-hui;MA Liang;LIU Feng(School of water conservancy and civil engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China;Bureau of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management,Korla 841000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆塔里木河流域管理局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第4期67-72,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2003204);新疆维吾尔自治区自治区高校科研计划(XJEDU2023J017);国家重点研发计划专项(2023YFC3206804);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022155)联合资助。

摘　　要：水土资源是维持内陆干旱区绿洲稳定和可持续发展的关键要素,而水资源承载力又是支撑不同历史时期绿洲规模的重要变量。通过采用空间诺伦兹曲线、最大容量概念模型、绿洲水热平衡方程等方法揭示了新疆各流域绿洲发展现状、承载力与稳定性。结果表明:研究区整体基尼系数较高,绿洲面积比值与非农业用水之间匹配程度较差,80%的流域处于轻度与中度开发中,以农耕型流域为主,90%的流域非农业用水在40%以下,城镇化率较低,发展相对迟缓。研究区各流域绿洲面积超载现象严重,以北疆居首的绿洲稳定性呈失稳的态势,整体已不具备开发潜力,各流域目前需要靠跨流域调水维持现状。研究成果为政府管理部门制定合理的绿洲发展规划提供决策依据。Water and soil resources are key elements in maintaining the stability and sustainable development of oases in inland arid zones.The establishment of a harmonious,stable,and sustainable oasis requires further research on the appropriate scale of the oasis,based on water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)and its alignment with specific economic and technical conditions.This paper examines the current status,carrying capacity,and stability of oasis development in Xinjiang watersheds using the spatial Norenz curve,the maximum capacity model,and the oasis water-heat balance equation.The results show that:the overall Gini coefficient of the study area is high,and the match between oasis area ratio and non-agricultural water use is poor.80%of the watersheds are under light and medium development,and are dominated by agricultural watersheds.90%of the watersheds have non-agricultural water use of less than 40%,and the urbanization rate is low,and the development is relatively slow.The overloading of oasis areas in the study region is severe,and the stability of the northern oasis is destabilizing.The entire region has no potential for further development and depends on inter-basin water transfer to maintain the current status.The findings of the study serve as a foundation for decision makers in formulating rational oasis development plans.

关 键 词：绿洲 发展指数 绿洲稳定性 水资源承载力 新疆 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]