天津市水资源现状分析与多情景演化规律研究  

Analysis of Water Resources Status Quo and Multi-Scenario Evolution of Tianjin City

作　　者：冯世奥 秦文静[2] 石文豪 陈文娟[1] 李媛媛 李新旺 张永根 FENG Shi-ao;QIN Wen-jing;SHI Wen-hao;CHEN Wen-juan;LI Yuan-yuan;LI Xin-wang;ZHANG Yong-gen(School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,Shanxi Province,China;Hebei Hydrological Survey Research Center,Shijiazhuang 050031,Hebei Province,China;Hebei Institute of Water Conservancy Science,Shijiazhuang 050057,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学地球系统科学学院,天津300072 [2]太原理工大学,山西太原030024 [3]河北省水文勘测研究中心,河北石家庄050031 [4]河北省水利科学研究院,河北石家庄050057

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第4期73-80,共8页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42077168)。

摘　　要：为研究天津市水资源现状与未来发展趋势,基于系统动力学理论将天津市水资源供需系统划分为人口、经济、环境、资源4个子系统,并根据变量间因果关系构建系统动力学模型进行模拟计算;分别使用2012-2019年、2020-2023年的数据进行模型调优与模型对比验证,验证期内各检验变量的相对误差绝对值均小于10%,表明所构建的模型能准确模拟天津市水资源供需关系。在此基础上设置现状延续情景(S_(1))、经济优先情景(S_(2))、环境优先情景(S_(3))、开源节流情景(S_(4))和综合发展情景(S_(5))5种发展情景对未来天津市水资源状况进行预测。使用生态足迹法从水资源压力、水资源利用效率、发展协调性等角度对天津市水资源现状(2010-2023年)与不同情景下的未来状况(2024-2035年)进行量化评价。结果表明:2010-2023年天津市水资源状况长期处于危险状态,人均水资源生态盈亏常年处在赤字状态(多年均值为-0.199 hm^(2)),水资源生态压力指数均值为3.37;未来发展中,不同情景下水资源生态压力指数均有所下降,进一步提高外调水量对缓解天津市水资源困境具有显著作用,但不合理的规划方案(如仅注重经济或盲目提高生态用水量)会导致水资源配置的失衡进而导致水资源安全程度降低;到2035年,现状趋势情景S1和综合发展情景S_(5)的水资源生态压力指数分别为2.84和2.77,水资源生态足迹强度分别247.8和239.3 hm^(2)/亿元,表明综合发展情景S_(5)兼顾水资源安全与经济发展,保障了天津市水资源的可持续性。In order to study the current situation and future development trend of water resources in Tianjin,the water resources system of Tianjin is divided into four subsystems,namely,population,economy,environment and resources,based on the system dynamics theory,and a system dynamics model is constructed to simulate the water resources supply-demand system of Tianjin according to the causal relationship between the variables.The model is tuned and validated against the model using the data of the 2012-2019 and 2020-2023 periods,respectively.The absolute values of the relative errors of each test variable in the validation period are less than 10%,which indicates that the model can accurately simulate the relationship between water resources supply and demand in Tianjin.On this basis,five development scenarios,namely the continuation of the current situation(S_(1)),economic priority(S_(2)),environmental priority(S_(3)),increasing supply and reducing demand(S_(4))and comprehensive development(S_(5)),are set to predict the future water resources situation of Tianjin.The ecological footprint method is used to quantitatively evaluate the current situation of water resources in Tianjin(from 2010 to 2023)and the future situation under different scenarios(2024-2035)from the perspectives of water resources pressure,water resources utilization efficiency and development coordination.The results show that the water resources situation in Tianjin has been in a dangerous state for a long time from 2010 to 2023,the ecological surplus/deficit of per capita water resources has been in a deficit state for many years(with a multi-year average of-0.199 hm^(2)),and the average value of the water resources ecological pressure index is 3.37.In future development,the water resources ecological pressure index under different scenarios will decrease.Increasing the amount of water transferred from outside will significant help alleviate the water resources predicament in Tianjin.However,unreasonable planning schemes(such as only focusing on the

关 键 词：天津市 系统动力学 生态足迹法 水资源现状分析 未来多情景模拟 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]