长白山天池溃决诱发泥石流灾害危险性评价  

Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow Disaster Induced by the Burst of Changbai Mountain Pool in the Sky

作　　者：刘鹏 郎秋玲[2] 黄金涛 金庆泽 高云玲 LIU Peng;LANG Qiuling;HUANG Jintao;JIN Qingze;GAO Yunling(School of Prospecting and Surveying Engineering,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130021,China;School of Jilin Emergency Management,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]长春工程学院勘查与测绘工程学院,长春130021 [2]长春工程学院吉林应急管理学院,长春130021

出　　处：《长春工程学院学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期75-81,共7页Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：吉林省教育厅科学技术研究项目(JJHK20210688KJ)。

摘　　要：长白山天池是一火山口湖,总蓄水量达20×10^(8) km^(3),一旦火山喷发引发火口湖溃决,会进而诱发泥石流灾害,必将带来严重的危害,因此对长白山天池溃决诱发泥石流灾害危险性进行评价非常重要。采用无人机监测、野外调查等多源信息获取泥石流灾害点数据,基于MIKE 21模型模拟长白山天池水体溃决后水体的分布范围及最大水深。根据研究区域具体情况,选择最大水深、年平均降雨量、坡度、坡向、曲率、植被覆盖度、岩性和距水系距离8个评价指标,通过ANP、CRITIC法计算主客观权重,并采用博弈论进行优化组合,获取优化的组合权重值,再基于地理信息系统对各评价指标进行加权计算,生成危险性分区图,结果显示,研究区域高度危险区和极高危险区分别占27.5%和11.8%。采用ROC曲线来验证泥石流危险性评价模型的准确性,结果准确率达到92%,表明危险性分区结果符合实际,评价结果可为长白山地区泥石流灾害风险评价及预警提供基础性研究成果。Changbai Mountain Pool in the Sky is a volcanic crater lake with a total water storage capacity of 20×10^(8) km^(3),which will further induce debris flow and bring serious damage,once a volcanic eruption triggers the burst of the crater lake.Therefore,it is very important to evaluate the risk of debris flow induced by the burst of Changbai Mountain Pool in the Sky.Multiple sources of information such as unmanned aerial vehicle monitoring and field investigations are used to obtain data on debris flow disaster points,it simulates the distribution range and maximum water depth of the water body after the burst of Changbai Mountain Pool in the Sky,based on the MIKE 21 model.According to the specific situation of the research area,eight evaluation indicators are selected,including maximum water depth,annual average rainfall,slope,aspect,curvature,vegetation coverage,lithology,and distance from the water system.The subjective and objective weights are calculated by ANP and CRITIC methods,and optimized by Game Theory to obtain the optimized combination weights.The evaluation indicators are weighted based on geographic information systems to generate a hazard zoning map.The results show that the high-risk and extremely high-risk areas in the research area accounted for 27.5%and 11.8%,respectively.The ROC curve is used to verify the accuracy of the debris flow hazard assessment model,with an accuracy rate of 92%,indicating that the hazard zoning results are in line with reality.The evaluation results can provide fundamental research results for the risk assessment and early warning of debris flow disasters in Changbai Mountain area.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险性 ANP CRITIC MIKE 21 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]