2025年1月全球传染病事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in January 2025

作　　者：孙雅婷 杨昕娉 房元圣 庞明樊 纪瀚然 武洁雯 赵青 滕岱君 孙静[1] 戚晓鹏[1] Sun Yating;Yang Xinping;Fang Yuansheng;Pang Mingfan;Ji Hanran;Wu Jiewen;Zhao Qing;Teng Daijun;Sun Jing;Qi Xiaopeng(Center for Global Public Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心全球公共卫生中心,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2025年第2期161-164,共4页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：科技创新2030—新一代人工智能重大项目(No.2021ZD0114101)。

摘　　要：目的对2025年1月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。方法运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。结果2025年1月监测到18种传染病在全球31个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国输入风险方面,中风险事件12个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件29个。结论建议一般关注玻利维亚的查帕雷出血热疫情,澳大利亚、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,英国和法国的猴痘疫情,印度的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎疫情,日本的流行性感冒疫情,美国的麻疹疫情,乌干达的苏丹病毒病疫情和印度的寨卡病毒病疫情可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注巴西的奥罗普切热、登革热疫情,法属波利尼西亚的登革热疫情,安哥拉的霍乱疫情以及乌干达的苏丹病毒病疫情。相较2024年12月,2025年1月还需一般关注玻利维亚的查帕雷出血热,澳大利亚的登革热,法国的猴痘,巴西的黄热病,乌干达的苏丹病毒病可能带来的感染风险。Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in January 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet,this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-,country-and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.Results In January 2025,18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 31 countries worldwide.In terms of importation risk to China,there are 12 medium-risk events;in terms of international travel risk,there are 5 high-risk events and 29 medium-risk events.Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to Chapare haemorrhagic fever outbreak in Bolivia,dengue fever outbreaks in Australia,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka,mpox outbreaks in the United Kingdom and France,chikungunya fever outbreak in India,polio outbreak in Pakistan,influenza outbreak in Japan,measles outbreak in the United States of America,Sudanese viral disease outbreak in Uganda and Zika virus disease outbreak in India,which may pose import risks.In terms of overseas travel risks,it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to Oropouche and dengue fever outbreaks in Brazil,dengue fever outbreak in French Polynesia,cholera outbreak in Angola and Sudanese virus disease outbreak in Uganda.Compared to December 2024,general attention should be paid to Chapare haemorrhagic fever in Bolivia,dengue fever in Australia,mpox in France,yellow fever in Brazil,Sudanese virus disease in Uganda in Uganda in January 2025.

关 键 词：全球传染病 事件监测 风险评估 开源情报 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51