2010-2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情流行特征及影响因素分析  

Epidemiological characteristics of febrile respiratory illness epidemics and influencing factors in a district of Beijing,2010-2023

作　　者：李佳慧 于文欣 王艳伟 张瑞雪 张文增 Li Jiahui;Yu Wenxin;Wang Yanwei;Zhang Ruixue;Zhang Wenzeng(School of Public Health,Hebei Medical University,Shijiazhuang 050017,Hebei,China;Yanjing Medical College,Capital Medical University,Beijing 101300,China;Shunyi District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 101300,China)

机构地区：[1]河北医科大学公共卫生学院,河北石家庄050017 [2]首都医科大学燕京医学院,北京顺义101300 [3]顺义区疾病预防控制中心,北京顺义101300

出　　处：《疾病监测》2025年第2期165-170,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：顺义区卫生健康科研发展专项(No.Wsjkfzkyzx-2023-y-02);北京市卫生健康委高层次公共卫生技术人才建设项目(No.学科骨干-01-005)。

摘　　要：目的分析2010—2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情流行病学特征,探讨疫情流行强度和持续时间的影响因素,为发热呼吸道疾病的防控工作提供实证依据。方法收集2010—2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情资料,对疫情流行特征进行描述性分析,应用χ^(2)检验和非条件logistic回归模型分析疫情罹患率及持续时间的影响因素。结果2010—2023年北京市某区共报告发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情554起,平均罹患率为21.71%,中位持续时间为4 d,中位疫情规模为8人。疫情高峰在11月至次年4月,共报告501起(90.43%);城区罹患率高于农村,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=169.801,P<0.001);中小学和托幼机构是疫情发生的主要场所,共报告544起(98.19%);引起疫情病原体以流感病毒为主,占76.65%(384/501),其次是腺病毒,占2.20%(11/501)。流感病毒引起的疫情中班级学生流感疫苗接种者罹患率低于未接种者,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=296.350,P<0.001)。民办学校[比值比(OR)=5.06,95%置信区间(95%CI):1.79~14.27]、采取停课措施时间>4 d(OR=3.92,95%CI:1.04~14.74)、响应时间2~d(OR=2.91,95%CI:1.99~4.26)、响应时间≥4 d(OR=4.79,95%CI:2.18~10.54)、病原为乙型Victoria系(OR=3.76,95%CI:1.60~8.82)是疫情流行强度的影响因素;采取停课措施时间>4 d(OR=47.12,95%CI:14.36~154.55)、响应时间2~d(OR=2.14,95%CI:1.44~3.18)、响应时间≥4 d(OR=20.16,95%CI:6.85~59.33)、病原在当季流感疫苗组份中(OR=0.35,95%CI:0.13~0.96)、病原为乙型Victoria系(OR=5.25,95%CI:2.31~11.91)、乙型Yamagata系(OR=5.54,95%CI:1.76~17.45)、腺病毒(OR=6.72,95%CI:1.66~27.23)、其他病原(肺炎支原体、人偏肺病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒和鼻病毒)(OR=4.41,95%CI:1.19~16.28)是疫情持续时间的影响因素。结论2010—2023年该区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情季节性明显,城区罹患率高于农村,中小学和托幼机构疫情是疫情高发场所,流感病毒是最常Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of outbreaks of febrile respiratory illness in a district of Beijing from 2010 to 2023,identify the influencing factors of epidemic intensity and duration,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of febrile respiratory illness.Methods The incidence data of epidemics of febrile respiratory illness in the district from 2010 to 2023 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis,and χ^(2) test and the multiple logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for epidemic intensity and duration.Results From 2010 to 2023,a total of 554 epidemics of febrile respiratory illness were reported in the district,with an average attack rate of 21.71%.The median duration of the epidemic was 4 days,and the median size of the epidemic was 8 cases.The annual incidence peak of the epidemic was during November-April,with a total of 501 outbreaks(90.43%)being reported.The attack rate was higher in urban area than in rural area(χ^(2)=169.801,P<0.001).The epidemics mainly occurred in primary or secondary schools and kindergartens(544 outbreaks,98.19%).The causative pathogens were mainly influenza viruses,accounting for 76.65%(384/501),followed by adenoviruses,accounting for 2.20%(11/501).In the influenza virus-caused epidemics,the attack rate in students who received influenza vaccination was lower than that in those who received no influenza vaccination(χ^(2)=296.350,P<0.001).The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that private school[odds ration(OR)=5.06,95%confidence interval(CI):1.79-14.27],school suspension for>4 days(OR=3.92,95%CI:1.04-14.74),epidemic response for 2-3 days(OR=2.91,95%CI:1.99-4.26),epidemic response for≥4 days(OR=4.79,95%CI:2.18-10.54),and influenza B virus/Victoria lineage(OR=3.76,95%CI:1.60-8.82)were the influencing factors for the intensity of the epidemics.School suspension for>4 days(OR=47.12,95%CI:14.36-154.55),epidemic response for 2-3 days(OR=2.14,95%CI:1.44-3.18),epidemic response for≥4 d

关 键 词：发热呼吸道疾病 聚集性疫情 流行特征 影响因素 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51