基于级联失效的全球航运网络脆弱性研究  

Research on Global Shipping Network Vulnerability Based on Cascade Failure

作　　者：郭建科[1] 李圆 GUO Jiankc;Ll Yuan(Liaoning Vornmal University Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Dalian ll6029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,大连116029

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2024年第12期24-36,共13页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大项目(22JJD790028)。

摘　　要：文章基于全球运力前20家班轮公司的航线数据分别构建了2015年和2020年全球航运网络,并通过级联失效模型来探究不同攻击策略下航运网络的脆弱性。研究表明:(1)级联失效模型下,2015年与2020年航运网络在随机攻击和最大聚类系数攻击时,网络呈鲁棒性;在最大度值攻击和最大介数攻击时,网络呈现脆弱性,且当新加坡港、香港港、上海港同时失效时,会对网络造成实质性破坏。(2)2015年航运网络在级联作用影响下,失效港口主要为东京、纽约、洛杉矶等东亚以及北美洲港口;2020年失效港口则转移为釜山、大连、横滨等绝大部分东亚地区港口,是网络的脆弱中心。(3)节点初始负载与失效节点数呈负相关,负载增长速度与失效节点数呈正相关。当参数一定时,失效节点的代替港口难以满足全球航运运输需求,新加坡市、中国香港和上海市是全球航运网络的中心城市,在经历多次迭代攻击后安特卫普港、宁德、松兹瓦尔能最大限度满足中心港口失效后的挂靠中转需求。This paper constructs the global shipping network for 20l5 and 2020 based on theroute data of the top 20 global shipping companies and explores the vulnerability of the shippingnetwork under diflerent attack strategies through a cascading failure model.Research has shownthat:(l)under the cascading lailure model,the shipping networks in 2015 and 2020 exhibitedrobustness under random attacks and maximum clustering coelficient attacks:During maximumdegree attacks and maximum hetweeness attacks,the network exhibits fragility,and when Sin-gapore,Hong Kong,and Shanghai ports fail simultaneously,it will cause substantial damage tothe network.(2)In 2015,the shipping network was allected by cascading ellects,and the mainports that failed were Tokyo,New York,Los Angeles,and other East Asian and North Ameri-can ports;In 2020,the ports that lailed were translerred to the vast majority of East Asian ports such as Busan,Dalian,and Yokohama,making them vulnerable centers of the net work.(3)The initial load ol a node is negatively correlated with the number of failed nodes,while therate of load growth is positively correlated with the number of failed nodes.When the parame-ters are constant,the replacement ports of failed nodes are difficult to meet the global shippingtransportation needs.Singapore City,Hong Kong,and Shang/hai are the centers of the globalshipping network.Aiter experiencing multiple iterative attacks,Antwerp Port,Ningde,andSongzwal can maximize the demand lor connecting and transierring after the iailure of the cen-tral ports.

关 键 词：航运网络 级联失效 容量负载 脆弱性 

分 类 号：U695.22[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] O157.5[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程] P7[理学—数学]