豆粕价格波动对生猪养殖成本的影响研究  

Study on influence of soybean meal price fluctuation on pig breeding costs

作　　者：郭媛媛 GUO Yuanyuan

机构地区：[1]三门峡社会管理职业学院,河南三门峡472000

出　　处：《饲料研究》2025年第5期181-184,共4页Feed Research

基　　金：河南省三门峡市职业教育教学改革研究项目(项目编号:SZJ202113)。

摘　　要：文章选取2014—2022年的月度面板数据,运用VAR模型、格杰兰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,探究豆粕价格波动对生猪养殖成本的动态影响。结果表明,豆粕价格波动与生猪养殖成本之间存在格兰杰因果关系;豆粕价格波动会导致生猪养殖成本升高,且该影响存在一定时滞性;豆粕价格波动对生猪养殖成本的贡献率从第2期开始显现,第9期达到峰值8.48%,第24期降至6.98%,虽呈缓慢下降态势,但整体仍与生猪养殖成本呈正相关。因此,文章提出全面部署豆粕减量替代行动、完善豆粕价格数字化监管体系、健全豆粕价格信息共享长效机制等建议,以期为养殖业高质量发展提供参考。Monthly panel data from 2014 to 2022 are analyzed with a VAR model,Gerrard causality test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition method to assess the dynamic impact of soybean meal price fluctuations on pig breeding costs.The results showed that there was a Gerrard causality relationship between the fluctuation of soybean meal prices and the cost of pig breeding.With the fluctuation of soybean meal prices,the cost of pig breeding increased,and this impact had a certain time lag.The contribution rate of soybean meal price fluctuations to the cost of pig breeding began to show in the second period,reached a peak of 8.48%in the ninth period,and decreased to 6.98%in the 24th period.Although it showed a slow decline,overall it was positively correlated with the cost of pig breeding.Therefore,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as the full deployment of soybean meal reduction alternative action,improving the digital supervision system of soybean meal price,and improving the long-term mechanism of soybean meal price information sharing,in order to provide reference for the high-quality development of aquaculture industry.

关 键 词：豆粕价格波动 生猪养殖成本 养殖业高质量发展 饲料成本 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]