基于LMDI模型的安徽省物流业碳排放影响因素分析  

Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions in logistics industry in Anhui Province based on LMDI model

作　　者：王壮壮 陆克斌[2] WANG Zhuangzhuang;LU Kebin(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230022,China;Business School,Anhui Xinhua University,Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,合肥230022 [2]安徽新华学院商学院,合肥230088

出　　处：《黑龙江工程学院学报》2025年第2期52-58,共7页Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2021D141)。

摘　　要：为实现物流业绿色低碳发展,文中在测算安徽省物流业碳排放量的基础上采用LMDI模型,对2012—2021年安徽省物流行业的碳排放总量进行分解,定量分析各个影响因素对总量变化的贡献程度。研究发现:1)能源结构对物流业碳排放的影响基本为正向,促进物流业的碳排放。2)能源效率对物流业碳排放的影响总体上呈波动下降趋势。3)产业结构在前期对物流业碳排放具有抑制作用,2019年后起促进作用。4)收入水平对碳排放的贡献率对碳排放的促进作用较大并呈稳步上升趋势。5)人口规模对碳排放具有持续正向作用,但影响较小。基于文中的研究结果,为安徽省物流业的节能减排提出相关建议。In order to achieve the green and low-carbon development of the logistics industry,this study utilizes the LMDI model to decompose the total carbon emissions of Anhui Province’s logistics industry from 2012 to 2021.It quantitatively analyzes the contribution degree of each influencing factor towards the overall change.The key findings are as follows:(1)The energy structure positively impacts carbon emissions in the logistics industry,thereby promoting its increase.(2)Energy efficiency generally exhibits a fluctuating downward trend in relation to carbon emissions within the logistics industry.(3)Initially,industrial structure inhibited carbon emissions in the logistics sector but started promoting it after 2019.(4)Income level significantly contributes to increased carbon emissions and demonstrates a steady upward trend.(5)Population size continuously influences carbon emissions with a minor impact.Based on these research results,relevant suggestions are proposed for energy conservation and emission reduction within Anhui Province’s logistics industry.

关 键 词：LMDI模型 安徽省物流业 碳排放 影响因素分析 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]