基于级联失效的航路网络脆弱性分析  

Vulnerability Analysis of En-route Network Based on Cascading Failure

作　　者：田文[1,2] 周雪芳 方琴 宋津津 TIAN Wen;ZHOU Xuefang;FANG Qin;SONG Jinjin(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106 [2]南京航空航天大学空中交通管理系统全国重点实验室,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2025年第2期317-325,355,共10页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFB2602403);国家自然科学基金项目(71971112);江苏省研究生创新计划项目(xcxjh20220718)。

摘　　要：为探究级联失效所造成的航路网络脆弱性变化规律,基于不同攻击方式的级联失效过程对航路网络脆弱性进行分析.首先,结合航路网络超容运行实际,提取非失效状态节点的过载运行、节点失效的概率性和节点所经负载的可分流性3个特点,构建航路网络级联失效模型和不同攻击方式的级联失效过程;然后,从航路点运行能力损失角度提出航路网络级脆弱性指标以及与级联失效模型相结合的脆弱性分析方法;最后,以民航华东区域为实例,分析航路网络脆弱性与所建模型参数的关联性,探究不同参数条件下航路网络脆弱性指标的变化规律,并设计了3种攻击实验.研究表明:各航路点运行能力随着负载流量的超容范围增加而提升,航路网络脆弱性随之降低;航路网络对选择性攻击方式较为敏感,尤其是基于介数的攻击.In order to explore the variation of the vulnerability of the en-route network caused by cascading failure,the vulnerability of the en-route network was analyzed based on the cascading failure process of different attack methods.By combining with the actual overcapacity operation of the en-route network,the overload operation of the nodes in the non-failure state,the probability of node failure,and the divertability of the load passed by the nodes were extracted.The cascading failure model of the en-route network and the cascading failure process based on different attack methods were constructed,and the en-route network-level vulnerability index was proposed from the perspective of the loss of waypoint operation capacity,as well as the vulnerability analysis method combined with the cascading failure model.The correlation between the vulnerability of the enroute network and the proposed model parameters was analyzed by studying the operation data in Eastern China,and the change rule of the vulnerability index of the en-route network under different parameters was explored.Three kinds of attack experiments were designed,and the results show that the operation capacity of each waypoint increases with the overcapacity range of the load flow,and the vulnerability of the en-route network decreases;the en-route network is more sensitive to selective attack methods,especially those based on the betweenness.

关 键 词：空中交通 航路网络 复杂网络 级联失效 脆弱性 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]