全球锑产业链复杂贸易网络结构的演化特征及对我国的启示  

The Evolutionary Characteristics of the Multi-layered Trade Network Structure of the Global Antimony Industry Chain and the Enlightenment to China

作　　者：王敏晰[1] 王铮 李新[1] WANG Minxi;WANG Zheng;LI Xin(College of Management Science,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2025年第2期69-85,共17页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：2023年教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(23JZD018)。

摘　　要：党的二十届三中全会提出要健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度,抓紧打造自主可控的产业链供应链。深入研究战略性矿产资源全球产业链演化特征为我国打造自主可控的产业链安全保障体系提供了重要的理论支撑。本文从产业链安全角度,运用复杂网络方法构建了战略性矿产锑的矿石端、初级加工品端和最终生产品端的三层复杂贸易网络拓扑结构,刻画锑产业链上中下游的多层贸易网络结构特征以及其社区演化格局,量化分析单层以及多层网络中关键节点的中心性,探究移除不同中心性节点对锑产业链多层贸易网络效率的影响。研究结果显示:(1)全球锑产业链多层贸易网络中,加权出度中心性、中介中心性和PageRank中心性排名前35%的节点(国家)决定了网络连通性和网络效率;(2)中国在全球锑产业链上具有高中介中心性,扮演重要桥梁角色;(3)新兴市场国家(如土耳其、越南)影响力上升,而韩国、南非等中转国贸易地位下降,产业链呈现高度依赖的多层网络结构;(4)贸易社区从以全球性核心国家(如中国、美国)为中心的“单核辐射”结构,逐渐演变为多个区域性贸易集团;(5)中国锑矿开采限制政策和出口限制政策导致前端锑矿石贸易量下降和终端锑产品贸易量减半的结果。最后,提出合理开采资源、拓宽进口来源、注重高附加值产品以及发展再加工技术、探索替代品等建议。The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to improve the resilience and safety level of industrial and supply chains,and to urgently build an independent and controllable industrial and supply chains.An in-depth analysis of the evolution of global industrial chains for strategic mineral resources provides critical theoretical support for China to develop a secure and selfreliant industrial chain framework.This article is based on the perspective of industrial chain security and uses complex network methods to construct a three-layer complex trade network topology structure of strategic mineral antimony,including the ore end,primary processed product end,and final production product end.It characterizes the multi-layer trade network structure characteristics of the upstream,midstream and downstream of the antimony industry chain and its community evolution pattern,quantitatively analyzes the centrality of key nodes in single-layer as well as multilayer networks,and explores the impact of removing different centrality nodes on the efficiency of the multi-layer trade network of the antimony industry chain.The research results show that:(1)In the multi-layered trade network of the global antimony industry chain,the top 35% nodes(countries)ranked by weighted initial centrality,intermediary centrality,and PageRank centrality determine network connectivity and efficiency;(2)China has a high degree of intermediary centrality in the global antimony industry chain and plays an important role as a bridge;(3)The influence of emerging market countries(e.g.,Turkey,Vietnam)is growing,while the trade status of transit countries like South Korea and South Africa is declining,with industrial chains exhibiting a highly dependent multi-layered network structure;(4)the trading community has gradually evolved from a“single-core radiation”structure centered on a global core country(e.g.,China and the United States)to multiple regional trading blocs;(5)The restrictive policies o

关 键 词：锑产业链 全球贸易网络 时空演化 网络效率 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]